HSBC Forecasts 4 to 6 Percent Luxury Sector Growth, Backing Seven Major Groups

HSBC issued buy recommendations on seven of the eight major luxury groups it analyzed in a March 9 research note, forecasting mid-single-digit growth of between 4% and 6% for the sector across 2026. The seven groups that earned the bank's buy call are LVMH, Richemont, Burberry, Prada, Moncler, Hermès, and Kering. Swatch was the sole name left out, receiving a more moderate forecast instead.

The breadth of the buy list is notable. It spans conglomerates anchored in hard luxury, like Richemont with its watchmaking and jewelry houses, alongside the leather-and-ready-to-wear dominance of LVMH and Kering, the elevated sportswear positioning of Moncler, and Burberry's ongoing repositioning at the top of British heritage fashion. That Prada earns a place alongside Hermès, widely considered the sector's most defensible brand, signals confidence in the Italian group's upward trajectory under Miuccia Prada and Raf Simons.

Swatch's exclusion tracks with a broader market read on the mid-range watch segment. Where Richemont benefits from demand for Cartier and Van Cleef jewelry alongside its timepieces, Swatch operates at price points more sensitive to consumer confidence shifts and discretionary spending pullbacks.

The timing of HSBC's note carries its own significance. The report was published on March 9, before the conflict in Iran escalated further, as WWD reported. Any revision to the 4%–6% growth band in response to subsequent geopolitical developments has not been publicly disclosed, and the full analyst rationale behind the forecast remains unavailable from the bank's summary as reported.

For the houses on HSBC's buy list, the forecast reinforces what their own runway decisions have already suggested: that quiet confidence in craftsmanship and restrained, investment-grade dressing continues to attract the consumers who matter most to luxury margins. The bank's optimism, even issued before a fresh round of geopolitical uncertainty, reflects a sector that has consistently outrun macro headwinds when its core clientele remains intact.