Colombia coffee output forecast to rise 7.2% as dry weather returns

A dryer stretch in Colombia is pushing the country’s coffee crop back up, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service forecasting a 7.2% rise in production to 13.4 million 60-kilogram bags in marketing year 2026/27. For coffee buyers watching washed arabica supply, that is the kind of weather shift that can move bids, reshape blend planning, and determine whether Colombian lots feel tight or merely competitive.

The rebound is being tied to favorable dry conditions after a rain-hit 2025/26 season, with the outlook following the swing from La Niña to a strong El Niño. USDA said coffee plants can handle water stress and higher temperatures, especially in soils that retain moisture well, which helps explain why the crop is seen recovering instead of breaking down. Colombia remains one of the world’s most closely watched arabica origins and the second-largest Arabica producer after Brazil, so even a modest improvement carries outsized weight.

That matters because the forecast is arriving after a volatile run of revisions. USDA’s May 2025 annual report had already warned that MY 2025/26 production would fall 5.3% to 12.5 million bags because of heavy rains. By December, the semi-annual update had reversed course, lifting the MY 2025/26 estimate to 13.8 million bags and exports to 12.5 million bags, while calling MY 2024/25 the highest production level in 30 years. For roasters, that kind of seesawing is not just a statistic, it is a reminder that Colombia’s availability can change fast with the weather.

The export data has shown that same strain. The International Coffee Organization said Colombia’s exports fell 19.4% in January 2026 to 0.94 million bags from 1.16 million bags a year earlier, even as world coffee exports totaled 12.05 million bags in April 2026. In practical terms, a larger Colombian crop should not erase global supply pressure on its own, but it could help stabilize one of the market’s most recognizable origins and support cleaner, brighter arabica offerings that specialty buyers lean on for single-origin releases and blend structure.

There are also signs the farmgate side is already responding. USDA said lower coffee prices are encouraging replanting and renovation, a production-supportive signal that could matter beyond one season of dry weather. The Federación Nacional de Cafeteros de Colombia reported May 2026 output at 1.12 million bags, up 38.9% from a year earlier, while the value of the harvest reached 1.1 trillion pesos, up 16.3% from May 2023. If the dry pattern holds, Colombia’s next shipments could arrive with a little more breathing room, and that is the kind of turnaround coffee drinkers notice in the cup long before they see it in a spreadsheet.