Global coffee prices rise as robusta supply tightens, Uganda gains momentum

Tightening robusta supply pushed global coffee prices higher, and the first money to move is landing with growers and traders holding beans. Uganda’s Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries said its April 13, 2026 market report showed May 2026 robusta futures closing at 300.10 US cents per pound, while May 2026 arabica settled at $3,324 per ton.

The ministry said the price strength was being supported by tight robusta supply, a stronger Brazilian real, and falling ICE robusta inventories. In Uganda, that translated into firmer indicative farm-gate levels of UGX 12,000 to 12,500 for FAQ coffee, UGX 6,000 to 6,500 for kiboko, UGX 14,500 to 15,500 for Arabica parchment, and UGX 15,000 to 16,000 for clean Drugar coffee. For producers, that is the kind of move that can restore cash flow after a soft patch. For roasters, it is the start of a cost pass-through that eventually reaches retail shelves and café menus.

The broader market backdrop backs up the move. The International Coffee Organization treats its Coffee Market Report as the monthly benchmark for price movements and supply-demand balances across the sector, and its May 2025 report showed global green bean exports falling to 10.2 million bags, down 6.8% from April. Robusta exports were even weaker, slipping 5.8% month on month to 3.98 million bags, a sign that the market had already been losing its buffer.

Uganda has seen this cycle before. In August 2025, Agriculture Minister Frank Tumwebaze said coffee prices had rebounded to UGX 13,000 to 14,000 per kilo for FAQ and UGX 13,500 to 14,000 for Arabica parchment after earlier weakness tied to oversupply from Brazil, Vietnam, and India. The latest move looks like a familiar reset, but one with wider consequences for every stage of the chain.

The country’s export numbers show why the price swing matters. MAAIF said Uganda shipped 694,318 60-kilo bags in April 2025, worth US$214.38 million, up 77.44% in volume and 152.56% in value from a year earlier. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service forecast 2025/26 production at 6.88 million 60-kilo bags, up 2.61%, while the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said exports from November 2024 through October 2025 reached 8.4 million bags worth US$2.4 billion, up from 5.8 million bags and US$1.3 billion in the previous 12 months. When robusta tightens globally, Uganda’s farm-gate optimism is usually the first signal, but the price pressure rarely stops there.