Polish diplomat says Cuba’s transition will require preparation, not fantasy

Adrian Chrobot’s warning cuts through the usual Cuba noise: a country does not move from oppression to freedom overnight, and Cuba is still missing the basic machinery that makes a transition hold. In a May 30 interview with Havana Times, the Polish diplomat framed the island’s future as a test of preparation, not wishful thinking, and that point lands because the country still lacks the safeguards, habits and incentives that keep a handoff from collapsing.

The legal and civic foundations are the first gap. Freedom House describes Cuba as a one-party communist state that outlaws political pluralism, bans independent media, suppresses dissent and severely restricts civil liberties. Human Rights Watch says the government continues to repress and punish virtually all forms of dissent while Cubans endure a dire economic crisis that affects rights, food and health. In practical terms, a real transition would need protections for opposition parties, independent newspapers, public assembly and due process. Those are not add-ons in Cuba. They are the missing floor.

The country’s recent history shows why that matters. The July 11, 2021 protests were the largest anti-government demonstrations since the Cuban revolution, and Human Rights Watch says hundreds of critics and protesters from that wave remain detained. In January 2025, Cuban authorities announced the release of 553 detainees after negotiations involving the Cuban government, the Vatican and the United States, but independent Cuban NGOs estimated that only about 200 of those freed were political prisoners. That mix of pressure, bargaining and partial relief suggests how fragile any future opening would be if it depended only on street pressure or a single diplomatic gesture.

The economic backdrop is just as unforgiving. Reuters reported in December 2024 that Cuba was facing shortages of food and medicine, frequent blackouts and a wave of emigration. Cuban authorities said 700,000 people marched in Havana on December 20, 2024 in a government rally against the U.S. embargo, though AFP could not independently verify the figure. Freedom House said the 2024 crisis deepened with persistent inflation, widespread poverty, fuel and food shortages, and frequent prolonged electricity outages. Even with Miguel Díaz-Canel in office and Raúl Castro long gone from the top Communist Party post, the system has not become more open since the leadership transition that began in 2018.

That is why Chrobot’s point matters. Cuba does not just need change. It needs a transition with rules, credibility and enough support to avoid a vacuum, because the island’s old habit has been to meet pressure with repression, not reform.