VIPS warns US Cuba policy risks deeper escalation amid crisis

Ray McGovern and 15 other former U.S. intelligence officers are warning that Washington’s Cuba campaign could slide into a costly miscalculation, not a clean show of force. Their memo from Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity says the mounting pressure on Havana risks a deeper U.S. involvement at exactly the moment Cuba is already buckling under blackouts, fuel shortages and economic strain.

The warning lands as the Trump administration has kept tightening the screws. The Congressional Research Service said President Joe Biden issued several executive actions modifying Cuba policy on January 14, 2025, before President Donald J. Trump reversed course six days later, on January 20, 2025. The White House later said Trump strengthened U.S. pressure in June 2025 through a National Security Presidential Memorandum. On May 18, 2026, the State Department said it was sanctioning 11 Cuban regime-aligned actors and three entities.

That sequence matters because the island’s energy crisis has become the backdrop to every policy move. Reuters reported in 2025 that Cuba was hit by repeated nationwide blackouts, a sign of a worsening power and economic emergency. More recent Reuters-related coverage in May 2026 said Cuba’s energy minister said fuel had “run out” as a four-month U.S. oil blockade choked off supplies. The same reporting said rare anti-government protests flared in Havana as prolonged power cuts pushed frustration into the streets.

VIPS is not a fresh think tank taking a swipe from the sidelines. It was formed in January 2003 by former U.S. intelligence officers who opposed the Iraq war buildup, and McGovern, a former CIA analyst, has long been one of its most visible members. That history gives the group’s Cuba warning a particular edge. This is the intelligence community’s old lesson about escalation: once Washington mistakes pressure for leverage, the bill can come due in ways no memo anticipated.

For Cuba watchers, the message is blunt. The island is already living through energy collapse, sanctions pressure and political volatility in Havana. VIPS is arguing that piling on more coercion, without a realistic off-ramp, risks turning a grinding crisis into the sort of strategic blunder Washington has claimed to have learned to avoid.