U.S. Craft Beer Closures Surge as Low‑ABV, Lagers Reshape Market

In 2024 the U.S. craft brewery count actually shrank to 9,736 operating breweries, down from roughly 10,000, after 399 closures and only 335 openings, a set of industry tallies reproduced by BirrUp shows. That year appears to be the first in modern memory in which closures outpaced openings in the independent segment, a shift first flagged by thedrinksbusiness.com and reiterated in later industry aggregation.

“What this is: An industry analysis published Feb. 18, 2026 that aggregates recent closure data, market signals and style trends to argue U.S. craft‑beer sales and operator economics have pivoted: closures have outpaced openings in parts of the market, low‑ABV beer is growing in market share, and lag”, the report fragment captures the paper’s core claim and frames 2024’s shrinkage as the baseline for pressures that intensified through 2025 and into 2026.

The product pivot is stark in the numbers. BirrUp reproduces industry data showing U.S. nonalcoholic (NA) beer sales jumped 111% by volume from 2021 to 2025, while craft NA volumes rose roughly 30% year‑over‑year in early 2024 and again over January–October 2024. BirrUp also reports that nearly half of craft breweries now offer at least one non‑alcoholic or low‑ABV option, up from 8% a few years ago, as brewers chase low‑ABV session beers, non‑alcoholic lagers, and “functional” craft brews aimed at health‑conscious drinkers trying “mindful beers.”

The competitive landscape is shifting uphill for small operators as multinational players and specialist NA brands expand. BirrUp lists Lucky Saint, Big Drop and Bitburger NA as market leaders in the NA lane, and notes Budweiser, Heineken and AB InBev maintain 0.0 portfolios. The aggregation also reproduces a Heineken headline: “← Heineken Slashes 6,000 Jobs as Craft Beer Trends Shift to Low‑ABV and Healthier Options in 2026,” underscoring global incumbents’ strategic moves into low‑ABV and adjacent beverages such as Heineken’s Lagunitas Hi‑Fi Hops joint ventures.

Supply‑chain and retail dynamics are squeezing margins. The Brewers Association cited Ball Corporation’s announcement that 2026 can production is sold out, pressuring brewers who rely on metal packaging. Ohbev.com forecasts rising tariffs on equipment, kegs, cans, hops, and malt and says retailers are cutting SKUs in favor of core brands, a combination that amplifies input‑cost pressure and forces SKU rationalization by small brewers.

The crunch has local consequences. MarketResearchFuture recorded a cluster of Houston‑area closures in June 2025, Copperhead Brewery, North Shepherd Brewing and Elder Son Brewing all announced closures within three weeks, illustrating how regional markets felt the same macro forces of inflation, post‑COVID taproom dips and higher input costs. BirrUp and MarketResearchFuture both flag consolidation as a sector response, pointing to rollups by Keystone Brewing Group in the U.K. and the past consolidation activity around CANarchy in the U.S.

Operators are adapting. MarketResearchFuture’s October 2025 overview highlights digitalization, sustainability and the integration of artificial intelligence in operations, and it argues strategic alliances and hyper‑local models are helping some breweries survive. BirrUp sums the outcome plainly: “What remains are stronger (or more efficiently managed) operations.” The net picture for 2026 is a leaner craft landscape where NA and lager innovation, supply‑chain control and tech‑driven efficiency determine who grows and who closes.