Canada, Cameco Near 10-Year $2.5-3B Uranium Deal with India, March Signing Possible

“Canada and India are tantalizingly close to a 10-year multibillion dollar uranium supply deal that will likely be signed at a heads of state meeting in March,” Forbes senior contributor Gaurav Sharma wrote, citing sources from India Energy Week in Goa. Sources from the conference and subsequent reporting place the proposed agreement as a decade-long supply arrangement that could be formalized when Prime Minister Mark Carney meets Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi in March.

Outlet reporting differs on the headline price. An original late-February summary put the range at $2.5–2.8 billion over ten years, Devdiscourse and Carboncredits framed the deal at $2.8 billion, and a spokesperson for India’s Department of Atomic Energy put the value “in the region of $3 billion.” All sources agree the term would be ten years and that Cameco Corporation is expected to play the central supplying role.

Cameco (TSE: CCO) is described by Forbes as “the world’s largest publicly traded uranium company,” and reporting identifies the Cigar Lake mine in northern Saskatchewan as the likely supply hub. India Today Global’s copy states, “The 10-year deal centers on Cameco Corporation's Cigar Lake mine in Saskatchewan, the world's highest-grade uranium operation, and will fuel India's ambitious plan to expand nuclear capacity tenfold to 100 gigawatts by 2047.” Cigar Lake has been operational since 2014, and corporate ownership stakes cited in reporting show Cameco holding 54.547% as of May 2022, Orano Canada 40.453%, and TEPCO Resources 5%.

Cameco has not provided detailed comments; Forbes noted that “Cameco said it would update the market at the appropriate time and declined further comment.” Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson confirmed talks at India Energy Week, and Devdiscourse reported provincial leaders Premier Scott Moe and New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt joining federal delegations. Devdiscourse also quoted Devesh Patnaik, India's High Commissioner to Canada, saying he “mentioned opportunities for deals in minerals, rare earths, and energy products as India seeks diverse energy sources.”

The diplomatic backdrop is prominent in the reporting. India Today Global framed the arrangement as significant for bilateral ties: “This deal marks a dramatic reset in bilateral relations following a 2023 diplomatic crisis over allegations of Indian intelligence involvement in a Sikh separatist's assassination in Canada.” That reset, sources say, dovetails with broader trade talks and ambitions; Devdiscourse reported that Mark Carney aims to double Canada's non-U.S. trade within a decade and that discussions include possible reductions of Indian tariffs on Canadian agricultural goods.

Strategic energy needs underline the commercial deal. Forbes cited IEA data that Canada accounts for 13% to 15% of global uranium production, and Carboncredits reported that Canada “holds the third-largest uranium reserves globally and ranks as the second-largest uranium exporter in the world.” Carboncredits also noted, “Roughly 15 percent of the uranium mined in Canada fuels domestic CANDU reactors. The remaining supply is exported, generating about $1 billion annually.”

The proposal follows prior cooperation: Devdiscourse contrasted the prospective 10-year pact with a 2015 agreement valued at $350 million, while Carboncredits said the partnership “paused in 2020” and now returns at a larger scale. Carboncredits framed the broader impact succinctly: “This deal goes beyond trade. It connects India’s need for clean power with Canada’s rise as a global supplier. It also comes at a time when Cameco is gaining strategic strength and influence, making this timing ideal for both countries.”

Key verification points remain: the final contract value, whether signing will occur at the March New Delhi meeting, and confirmation of India’s official nuclear target figures, where one source also referenced a divergent “200 gawatt” figure. If the sources hold, the next month could see Canada and Cameco lock in a decade-long supply arrangement that materially shifts uranium flows between Saskatchewan and India.