Baker County talk explores AI tools for water, farm forecasting

Better forecasting for Phillips Reservoir could shape how Baker County irrigators decide when to plant, how much to water, and how far a limited supply will stretch.

That is the practical message behind a public talk set for May 7 at the Baker County Library in Baker City, where Elaine Swanson, who grew up in Baker City and now teaches at Eastern Oregon University, will open the Powder Basin Watershed Council’s 2026 guest speaker series. Swanson, the AI + Tech educator for Greater Oregon STEM and an agriculture technology instructor in EOU’s College of Business, will present on data pipelining and AI forecasting for Eastern Oregon agriculture.

Her talk arrives as the county is under a drought emergency. On March 26, Gov. Tina Kotek declared drought emergencies in Baker, Deschutes and Umatilla counties for the 2026 calendar year, a move meant to coordinate state response and unlock help for local water users, including expedited review processes and reduced fee schedules. For Baker County growers, that makes the timing of water deliveries as important as the total volume available.

Swanson’s work points directly at that challenge. Eastern Oregon University said she already worked with the Baker Valley Irrigation District on a 90-day Phillips Reservoir forecasting model that used satellite snow imagery from the Elkhorn Mountains, Hydromet data from Mason Dam and a gated recurrent unit AI algorithm. The goal is not abstract technology. It is to combine satellite data, environmental observations and regional agricultural inputs so producers and water managers can better judge supply and timing before the season turns.

That matters in a system with deep roots. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation says irrigation in Baker Valley began in the 1870s, long before Mason Dam was completed in 1968 to create Phillips Reservoir. The Baker Project provides supplemental water for about 7,300 acres in the Lower Division and 19,000 acres in the Upper Division. When full, Phillips Reservoir holds 73,000 acre-feet, with 38,000 acre-feet assigned to flood control capacity.

Recent reservoir levels show why even modest forecasting improvements could pay off. Phillips Reservoir reached 53,654 acre-feet on April 30, 2025, its highest point since July 2017, then climbed to 60,200 acre-feet on June 2, 2025, the first time it topped 60,000 acre-feet since 2017. Those swings can change how much confidence irrigators have in the months ahead.

The Powder Basin Watershed Council, formed in 1991, reorganized in 1995 and became a 501(c)(3) in 2008, says the basin supports more than 16,000 residents. Baker County’s agricultural economy gives the topic added weight: USDA’s 2022 Census of Agriculture profile lists 576 farms and ranches and $101.338 million in farm and ranch sales. Swanson’s presentation, scheduled from 5:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. at 2400 Resort St., will connect those numbers to a question that never goes away here: how to make the next acre-foot count.