Baltimore County schools project shrinking enrollment and funding shortfalls
BCPS now projects enrollment will fall every year through 2035, a reversal that could leave the district 3,200 students smaller and drain hundreds of millions from schools.
Baltimore County Public Schools now projects enrollment will fall every year from 2026 through 2035, leaving the system about 3,200 students smaller than it is now after 10 school years. That is more than 5,000 students below last year’s outlook, and district officials called the change “certainly a concern” because funding follows enrollment.
The shift comes as more Maryland families leave the state. Maryland Chamber of Commerce data shows Maryland lost 120,435 residents to other states from 2020 to 2024, placing it sixth among the 50 states for domestic outmigration. Whitney and Matt Shlesinger of Baltimore County are among the families heading out, moving to Georgia next month because of taxes, the cost of living and job stability.
The district’s annual Students Count report guides new school construction, building renovations, teacher recruitment and staffing decisions. BCPS’s official Sept. 30, 2024 enrollment was 110,066, down 218 students from Sept. 30, 2023 and down 4,972 from Sept. 30, 2019.
Superintendent Myriam Rogers warned earlier this year that declining enrollment was forcing the district to tighten its belt. Last year’s BCPS forecast had pointed to about 2,000 students of growth over 10 years; the new version now shows decline, a reversal that could reduce funding by hundreds of millions of dollars.
Baltimore City Public Schools enrolled 76,362 students for the 2025-26 school year, down 479 from the prior year, even as the district approved a $1.9 billion FY26 operating budget. Across Maryland, school aid is driven by a weighted-student formula under the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future, and most funding is tied to a single Sept. 30 count. Lawmakers considered House Bill 1403 in 2025 to average enrollment across four dates instead of using only one.
Maryland Department of Planning released its 2025-2034 public school enrollment projections in August 2025, giving Annapolis and local districts a fresh benchmark for budget and staffing plans.
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