Poll shows Roy Cooper ahead of Michael Whatley in Senate race

Roy Cooper opened an 8-point lead over Michael Whatley in a High Point University poll of likely North Carolina voters, giving Guilford County a front-row seat in a Senate race that is already pulling in national money and attention.

The High Point University Survey Research Center found Cooper at 50% and Whatley at 42% among 703 likely voters in a sample of 800 North Carolina adults. The poll was conducted from March 26 to April 6 and released April 16. In the same survey, likely voters were split 43%-43% in the North Carolina Supreme Court race between Anita Earls and Sarah Stevens, while Democrats led the generic U.S. House ballot 48%-44% and the North Carolina House ballot 47%-43%.

The Senate contest is for an open seat because Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. That open-seat dynamic has kept the race competitive in the eyes of state and national handicappers. As of April 3, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rated it a Toss-up, though Cook moved the race to Lean Democrat on April 13.

For Guilford County, the significance goes beyond one poll number. High Point University is in the Triad, and a Cooper lead in a local poll gives Democrats a reason to keep pressing in Greensboro, High Point and surrounding precincts where turnout can decide close statewide races. It also puts pressure on Republicans to make Whatley more familiar to voters who still know Cooper far better.

The money race already reflects that urgency. Cooper’s campaign said he raised $13.8 million in the first quarter of 2026 and entered the second quarter with $18.5 million cash on hand. Whatley’s campaign said it raised $5 million and had more than $2.5 million in cash. WRAL reported that the two campaigns and their affiliated committees had already taken in more than $50 million combined, a level of spending that points to a flood of advertising and outside intervention ahead of November 3.

An earlier High Point University poll, released January 29, showed Cooper with a 44% favorability rating among North Carolinians, compared with 43% for Donald Trump and 45% for Gov. Josh Stein. That same survey found 62% of respondents were unfamiliar with Whatley, a gap that still hangs over the race even as he tries to define himself as an ally of Trump, a tax cutter and a candidate focused on prices and public safety.

The field also includes Green Party candidate Brian McGinnis and Libertarian nominee Shannon Bray, but the real contest remains Cooper against Whatley. If Cooper’s lead holds, Guilford County could see more campaign visits, more donor interest and a sharper push for turnout in the Triad, where the Senate map may prove to be the state’s most important battleground.