McGuire, CAL FIRE warn Humboldt of unpredictable wildfire season

A near-snowless Sierra and a possible shift toward El Niño are setting up a wildfire season that could swing from stormy to dangerous with little warning, and Humboldt County was told to prepare now. State Sen. Mike McGuire used a Wednesday evening wildfire preparedness town hall with CAL FIRE and local fire districts to make the case that the county cannot wait for red-flag weather to start getting ready.

McGuire’s event page said the virtual meeting focused on wildfire preparedness, response and prevention, along with protecting at-risk communities. That message lands hard in Humboldt County, where forested inland areas, coastal communities and small roads can complicate evacuations and slow fire response in places like Hoopa, the Mad River Valley and the southern county.

The weather and snowpack data behind the warning were striking. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on April 17 that ENSO-neutral conditions were favored for April-June 2026, but El Niño was likely to emerge in May-July with a 61% chance, and there was a 1-in-4 chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The California Department of Water Resources said its April 1 snow survey at Phillips Station found no measurable snow, and its April 7 snow dashboard showed statewide snowpack at about 16% of average, with Northern California at about 5% of normal.

Fire agencies are already translating those numbers into risk. The National Interagency Fire Center’s April-July outlook said northern California fire potential was normal in April, above normal in portions of the lowlands in May, and expanding farther in June and July. CAL FIRE’s 2026 incident archive described northern California as facing a developing flash drought and early-season dryness that is pushing conditions toward critical levels faster than usual.

For Humboldt households, that means defensible-space work and evacuation planning need to happen before summer heat and wind arrive. It also puts pressure on the officials responsible for readiness, from McGuire and CAL FIRE to local fire districts, because the season may not unfold in a clean, predictable pattern. A wet start can still give way to a fast-moving fire year if the atmosphere turns dry and unstable at the wrong moment.