Colorado River drought deepens as Lake Powell nears critical level

Lake Powell was heading toward a level that could force major changes in how the Colorado River is managed, and that matters directly in Parker and across the Colorado River Indian Tribes reservation. Federal forecasters said the reservoir could fall below 3,490 feet by August 2026 without major intervention, a point where Glen Canyon Dam releases would have to shift to the river outlet works only and hydropower generation would stop.

The warning came as the Bureau of Reclamation said Colorado River system storage had dropped to about 36 percent of capacity. Reclamation also said Lake Powell’s minimum probable water-year inflow was just 2.78 million acre-feet, about 29 percent of the historical average, after the lowest winter snowpack on record and a brutally hot spring pushed the system into a dangerous range.

To keep Lake Powell above critical elevations, Reclamation moved into drought-response operations under the 2019 Drought Response Operations Agreement. The agency said it planned to add as much as 2.48 million acre-feet to the reservoir through extra releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir and reduced releases from Lake Powell, with drought-response releases from Flaming Gorge beginning April 23. Reclamation said the 2026 plan calls for sending between 660,000 acre-feet and 1 million acre-feet from Flaming Gorge through April 2027, while cutting annual releases from Lake Powell to Lake Mead from 7.48 million acre-feet to 6.0 million acre-feet through September 2026.

Those moves ripple far beyond reservoir maps. The Colorado River supplies water to more than 40 million people in seven states, and for La Paz County residents the river is part of daily life, not distant policy. The Colorado River Indian Tribes reservation stretches 45 miles by 12 miles and includes 114 linear miles of Colorado River shoreline, along with about 240 miles of irrigation canals and 152 miles of drains. Lower releases, changing water levels and power uncertainty can affect farms, homes, businesses and recreation from Parker to the reservation’s riverfront.

The system was already under strain in January, when Reclamation projected Lake Powell would start water year 2026 at 3,538.47 feet, only 48 feet above minimum power pool. By June 3, Flaming Gorge Reservoir was about 77 percent full, and releases beginning June 13 were averaging 1,600 cubic feet per second as part of the emergency effort. Reclamation said similar drought-response operations were used in 2021 and 2022, underscoring how often the basin has had to shift into crisis management.

For La Paz County, the next 30 to 60 days will hinge on how those releases hold up and whether Lake Powell can stay above the critical line. River users, irrigators and recreation interests in Parker and on the CRIT reservation are likely to see tighter attention on water levels, access points and operating schedules as federal managers try to keep the system stable through another punishing summer.