Storm Prediction Center adds tornado intensity levels to Wake County maps

The Storm Prediction Center added three tornado-specific intensity levels to its severe-weather maps, a change that began March 3, 2026 and alters how central North Carolina, including Wake County communities such as Raleigh, Cary, Apex and Wake Forest, will see tornado risk. "Starting Tuesday, the maps will have even more detail," the local Severe Weather Team explained as the new overlay went into use.

When severe storms are forecast, the WRAL Severe Weather Team currently shows the risk level on a scale of one to five. "The map below is an example of the map you are used to seeing on TV, with level one through five risks for severe weather. It covers all severe weather, including hail, tornadoes or wind damage," the team said, and the three-level tornado overlay is designed to sit on top of that familiar graphic.

The tornado overlay introduces three intensity gradations focused specifically on tornado potential. "The weather service wants to focus on where you may see tornadoes with three intensity levels," the Severe Weather Team said. The new symbols are explicit: "Level one is dashed lines, level two is solid lines and level three is diamonds."

Forecasters defined level three as the highest tornado-intensity area on the new overlay. "The area highlighted with diamonds is considered a level 3 tornado intensity, which is the highest possible level. This area would have the highest likelihood of seeing an EF-2 tornado or stronger," the explanation states, a delineation officials say should sharpen messaging where the most destructive tornadoes are most likely.

The change is based on a retrospective analysis of recent events. "New intensity levels were developed by studying tornadoes that formed over the last 20 years," the Severe Weather Team reported, a 20-year window officials described as the basis for calibrating the three-tiered overlay.

Local forecasters cautioned that the new granularity does not lessen the threat from lower-rated tornadoes. "Just because we are able to refine areas more likely to see upper-end tornadoes, it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t treat the lower-end ones as serious," Petro said. "The research that’s been done shows it’s pretty effective in outlining the areas that are most likely to see those deadly tornadoes," said Nick Petro, meteorologist with the Raleigh National Weather Service, and Petro reminds people that any tornado can be life-threatening.

The change arrives as central North Carolina moves into its spring severe-weather window. "March, April and May bring the best chance for tornadoes in central North Carolina," the Severe Weather Team noted, and the team added that "The changes may seem complex, but the WRAL weather team is ready to help you navigate this year’s severe season." These maps, WRAL added, were created by Storm Prediction Center meteorologists and are designed to help keep you safe in a storm.