AI could unlock €15 billion in productivity gains for Hungary

A €15 billion AI windfall would amount to a serious slice of Hungary’s economy, but McKinsey’s estimate only matters if it reaches the firms and workers that still lag behind Europe. The consultancy says artificial intelligence could create at least €15 billion in automation-driven value by 2030, about 6% to 7% of GDP, yet it also warns that Hungary’s growth model has hit its limits and can no longer rely on rising employment and wages alone.

The clearest early gains are likely to come in sectors built on repetitive workflows and tight cost control. Magyar Telekom offered a concrete example: AI cut the time needed to launch new services from about 90 days to about 30, while allowing the company to move half of its network-monitoring staff into more complex work. That points to the kind of productivity shift Hungary will need, with routine monitoring, administrative processing and other standardized tasks under the most pressure.

McKinsey’s broader case is that Hungary cannot close its productivity gap by adding more labor. Employment is already at 81 percent, and real wages are up more than 50 percent since 2008. The problem is that small and medium-sized companies, which account for a large share of Hungarian jobs, remain more than 50 percent less productive than large firms. If AI adoption stays concentrated in a few big companies, the gap inside the economy could widen even as headline output rises.

That is why the policy burden is as important as the software. Hungary published its first national AI strategy in September 2020, after the Hungarian Artificial Intelligence Coalition formed in 2018 and grew to more than 320 members. The strategy set targets of up to 300 people with a PhD in an AI research topic and 8,000 adults in AI-related education. McKinsey says the country still faces skill shortages, low regional mobility, slow education reform, and gaps in health and financial literacy, all of which slow the move from low-value tasks to higher-value work.

The political setting has changed as well. Peter Magyar’s government, sworn in in May 2026 after 16 years of Viktor Orban, says it wants an economy built on productivity, higher added value, skilled workers and a predictable business environment, with a 3 percent deficit goal by 2030. That makes the AI debate a test of national economic strategy, not just corporate efficiency.

The market is moving faster than many policymakers. Eurostat said 13.5 percent of EU enterprises with at least 10 employees used AI in 2024, up from 8.0 percent a year earlier, while Deloitte Hungary found in 2025 that 85 percent of more than 100 organizations were already using AI and 42 percent had a dedicated budget. Gabor Orban of Richter urged patience before judging the hype, and Gergely Bacso of Allianz Hungary said the issue is global competition as much as cost savings. Hungary’s challenge is turning those pilot gains into broad-based productivity, or the €15 billion forecast will remain a number on a slide.