Airlines cut nearly two million seats as fuel costs surge

Airlines have pulled almost two million seats from May schedules as a sharp jump in jet fuel costs spreads through the industry, raising the risk of fewer choices and higher fares just as summer travel gets underway. Cirium data show global seat capacity for May fell from 132 million to 130 million between April 10 and April 21, while carriers cut about 13,000 flights. The retreat is already showing up in the places passengers notice first, with fewer departures, thinner schedules and a growing chance that airlines pass more of the cost shock on to travelers.

The reductions are broad. Cirium said 19 of the world’s 20 largest airlines trimmed May flying, with Turkish Airlines the lone exception in one analysis. Most cuts were modest, in the 0% to 5% range, but the pain is not evenly distributed. Qatar Airways’ schedule was down 33% year on year, while Emirates still planned 2.4% growth. Airports including Istanbul and Munich are among those seeing some of the largest reductions, and the squeeze is arriving ahead of the UK half-term break at the end of May, when families typically fill planes and terminals.

The trigger is fuel. IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor put the global average at $181.22 a barrel in the latest reported week, and IATA said sudden price moves are harder for airlines to absorb than high but stable prices. Jet fuel is already one of the industry’s two biggest costs, alongside labor. IATA noted that in 2011 to 2014, when jet fuel averaged about $124 a barrel, airlines still managed average operating margins of around 3%; in 2008, a fuel shock pushed margins close to zero. That history is why the current spike matters so much: it threatens not only profits, but capacity plans and ticket pricing.

Europe looks especially exposed. Cirium and ICIS said European OECD countries consumed 1.6 million barrels a day of jet fuel in 2025, with around 500,000 barrels a day covered by imports. ICIS said Europe’s monthly jet fuel deficit averages more than 2.5 million tonnes entering the summer, while Cirium said European jet fuel prices more than doubled over six weeks from late February. The impact could peak in the second quarter, with as much as 500,000 barrels a day removed from the market.

The response is already reshaping airline behavior. Cirium said long-haul carriers in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific have all started trimming schedules, while short-haul operators such as Southwest and Ryanair have been less exposed. Delta Air Lines has guided to flat year-on-year capacity in the second quarter, and Ryanair has hinted it may cut schedules by 5% to 10% if fuel stays expensive. The UK government is also preparing temporary rules that would let airlines consolidate passengers onto fewer planes, give back slots without losing them, and move travelers onto similar services earlier, a sign that the industry is bracing for more cancellations before the summer peak.