Alibaba Analysis Projects Labubu Contributing Major Share of Pop Mart 2026 Revenue

Alibaba’s March 1, 2026 analysis estimates Labubu will contribute roughly $312–$347 million to Pop Mart in 2026. That triangulated range is striking because it is smaller than the franchise’s recent reported output: Gadallon pegs Labubu at roughly ¥3.0 billion (~$418 million) in 2024, and Wired reports The Monsters generated over ¥4.81 billion (~$670 million) in the first six months of 2025.

Pop Mart’s company-level numbers show why Labubu matters. VisualCapitalist’s revenue table lists Pop Mart at $1,800 million in 2024, and CEO Wang Ning said it should be “quite easy” to reach $4.2 billion in revenue in 2025. Gadallon and Wired both cite explosive H1 2025 growth: Pop Mart reported 13.88 billion yuan ($1.93 billion) in revenue for the first half of 2025, up 204% year-on-year, while Gadallon reports net income climbed to 4.57 billion yuan and Wired reports net profits rose sharply and gross margin reached 70.3% in 2025.

Labubu’s rise has been breathtaking in raw numbers. Gadallon’s series shows The Monsters went from about ¥0.37 billion in 2023 to ¥3.0 billion in 2024, a 726% jump, then to roughly ¥4.8 billion in just H1 2025. Wired similarly records a 668% year-on-year jump for The Monsters in H1 2025 and says the franchise accounted for nearly 35% of Pop Mart’s total revenue in the first half of 2025, up from 14% in June 2024. Pop Mart’s plush category mirrored that surge: plush revenue grew over 1,200% in 2025 to 6.13 billion RMB ($854 million), and the company released more than 20 different plush products since the start of 2025 in attempts to replicate Labubu’s pull.

That commercial arc is exactly the focus of Gadallon’s modeling. Gadallon fits a logistic diffusion curve to Labubu revenues and explicitly frames sales as the “area under the demand curve where U(N)≥0,” noting an S-shape driven by a recognition term αR(N) in the steep adoption phase and an exclusivity penalty −γ that pulls adoption down at high penetration. Gadallon’s fit implies a saturation point around ¥8–10 billion annually for Labubu, or roughly 20–30 million units worldwide depending on average selling price.

Not all sources line up on details. Wired and Gadallon agree on 204% H1 2025 revenue growth but differ on profit metrics: Wired reports net profits up 362% while Gadallon reports net income up 397% to 4.57 billion yuan. Alibaba’s piece is also incomplete in the excerpt available here, containing the fragment “and it breaks that number into revenue c,” leaving the methodology behind the $312–$347 million range opaque.

VisualCapitalist’s global footprint table underscores the scale Pop Mart now serves: ranked locations list shows the U.S. at 13,557, Mainland China 6,820, Japan 2,989, France 1,589, Canada 1,489, UK 1,470, Germany 1,367, Brazil 1,173, Australia 1,068, Philippines 792, Italy 755, India 665, Spain 635, Poland 580, Saudi Arabia 441, Taiwan 417, South Africa 401, South Korea 398, Mexico 374. If Alibaba’s March 1 estimate holds, Labubu will remain a major revenue driver for Pop Mart in 2026 but the gap between that estimate and the franchise’s recent half-year totals points to differing assumptions about sustainability, channel breakdowns, or product mix that will determine whether Labubu's boom is still growing or beginning to normalize.