Becerra leads California governor race as top-two primary nears

Xavier Becerra has opened a narrow lead in California’s governor’s race, but the real battle is whether the top-two primary system will let him shape the November matchup or force him into a runoff with the candidate who survives the scramble for second place.

Two recent polls show the race tightening into a brutal viability test. A Berkeley-Los Angeles Times survey cited by ABC7 Los Angeles found Becerra at 25%, Steve Hilton at 21% and Tom Steyer at 19%, with Chad Bianco at 11% and Katie Porter at 7% in the earlier polling comparison. A separate Public Policy Institute of California poll reported by Politico put Becerra at 23%, Hilton at 20% and Steyer at 15%. PPIC survey director Mark Baldassare said Becerra is in “a very strong position” heading into the final stretch.

The top-two primary makes the math unforgiving. Under California’s system, only the two highest vote-getters in the June 2 primary advance to the November 3 general election, no matter their party. That means Steyer’s path runs less through Becerra than through Hilton, the Republican candidate most likely to claim the second runoff spot if Democratic votes split too evenly. UCLA public policy professor Jim Newton said Steyer should be targeting Hilton, because Hilton is the candidate Steyer needs to pass to reach the runoff.

That split is the central risk for Democrats. California’s April 3 registration report showed Democrats at 44.92% of voters, Republicans at 25.03% and no party preference voters at 22.76%. Those numbers give Democrats a clear edge in a statewide race, but not enough cushion to ignore fragmentation. A Becerra-versus-Hilton general election would likely favor the Democrat in a state that remains overwhelmingly blue. Yet a Becerra-versus-Steyer runoff, or even a two-Democrat general election, remains possible if the Democratic field consolidates in one direction and the anti-Becerra vote coalesces elsewhere.

Money has also sharpened the stakes. ABC7 reported that Steyer has poured more than $216 million of his personal fortune into his campaign, one of the most expensive bids in state history. At the same time, Politico reported that California Resources Corp. gave $500,000 to an independent committee backing Becerra, followed by a similar contribution from Chevron, giving Steyer fresh material to attack Becerra on fossil-fuel ties.

Ballots for the June 2 primary began going out to military and overseas voters as early as April 3, and counties mailed ballots to all other voters by May 4. Californians who missed the May 18 registration deadline can still register and vote through Election Day, keeping the field open as the last votes are cast and the runoff picture comes into focus.