Blair warns Labour is lacking a project as heatwave grips UK

Tony Blair’s 5,700-word intervention landed as the UK baked under a spell of exceptional May warmth, and it did more than reopen an old Labour family argument. By warning that the party is “lacking a project” and “playing with fire,” the former prime minister put Sir Keir Starmer’s authority on trial over the central question now hanging over Labour: does it have a governing story on growth, public services and climate, or only a set of reactive fixes?

Blair, whose essay was published on Tuesday, said the government needs a “fundamental reset” less than two years after winning power in July 2024. He also urged Labour not to force Starmer out without a proper policy agenda ready to replace him, a warning that cuts to the heart of the party’s internal credibility. Blair remains the only Labour leader to have won three general elections, and his judgment still carries weight because it is tied to a record of winning, not just critique.

The criticism was pointed and specific. Blair took aim at the rise in employers’ national insurance, the workers’ rights bill, the increase in the minimum wage, welfare spending and the triple lock on pensions, arguing that Labour risks losing the political centre ground if it leans too heavily on “taxing and spending” to solve economic problems. For Starmer, that is not just an economic disagreement. It is a test of whether the government can explain how its choices will improve living standards, protect frontline services and keep faith with voters who want change but fear instability.

The timing made the attack even sharper. The Met Office said temperatures were expected to reach around 28C to 29C over the bank holiday weekend, with a good chance of 30C in southeast England, before climbing to 35C in London, the Home Counties and Cambridgeshire on Tuesday. It warned that May and spring UK temperature records could be broken, with the existing May record standing at 32.8C. Heat health alerts were in place across England, turning the weather into a public health issue as much as a forecast.

That matters because the Met Office says an official heatwave requires at least three consecutive days above county-specific thresholds, and because the UK has already seen how dangerous extremes can be. The first recorded day above 40C came in July 2022, when Coningsby in Lincolnshire reached 40.3C. The Met Office now says the chance of exceeding 40C in the UK is more than 20 times higher than it was in the 1960s. Against that backdrop, Blair’s warning bites hardest where voters are already most exposed: on bills, services, and whether Labour can match its rhetoric to the realities people are living through right now.