Carney seeks majority boost in key Canadian by-elections amid defections

Mark Carney entered three federal by-elections with a chance to turn a fragile hold on the House of Commons into a governing majority. With 343 seats in the chamber and 172 needed for control, the Liberals were at 171 before voters in Scarborough Southwest, University–Rosedale and Terrebonne went to the polls.

A single victory in any one of the three ridings would push Carney’s party over the threshold and give the prime minister more room to pass legislation, manage dissent and set the government’s direction without depending on every opposition vote. That matters after four Conservative MPs crossed the floor to the Liberals in recent months, a string of defections that brought Carney close to majority status without a general election.

The biggest political fight is in Terrebonne, where the 2025 federal result was overturned by the Supreme Court of Canada after Liberal Tatiana Auguste won by one vote. The case followed a judicial battle over an Elections Canada mail-in ballot error, turning the Montreal-area riding into a rematch with national implications. While Scarborough Southwest and University–Rosedale are considered safe Liberal seats, Terrebonne remains one of the few places where the Bloc Québécois could claw back ground.

Carney has argued that a stronger mandate would help him confront U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade measures and a wider stretch of economic uncertainty. The by-elections have become less about routine vacancies than about whether the Liberals can convert their recent gains in the Commons into something more durable, and whether Carney can do it without a general election.

Elections Canada set advance voting for April 3, 4, 5 and 6, with election day on Monday, April 13, 2026. Electors had to live in the riding as of March 8 to vote, and confirmed-candidate lists were released on March 25 as the agency hired workers and pushed last-minute registration and special-ballot returns.

Even the math has not settled the politics. Ipsos found Canadians split 53% to 47% on whether the Liberals should win enough by-elections to form a majority government, underscoring that Carney’s path to stronger power is straightforward on paper and contested in public.