China Conducts Largest Live Fire Drills Designed to Encircle Taiwan

China on Monday began its largest live fire war games around Taiwan, releasing footage of joint operations under the name Justice Mission 2025, in some broadcasts referred to as Just Mission 2025. The Eastern Theatre Command said the multi-branch exercises concentrate forces to the north and southwest of the Taiwan Strait and are carrying out live firing and simulated strikes on land and maritime targets as part of a campaign to encircle the island.

State materials and maritime notices show an expansion of the exercise footprint. China’s Maritime Safety Administration published notices establishing seven maritime safety zones for live firing, up from an initial military statement that described five artillery zones. Official imagery and video released by the theatre command depict ships firing, air sorties and propaganda graphics that label elements of the campaign with slogans including Shields of Justice: Smashing Illusions and Arrows of Justice: Control and Denial. Chinese commentary framed the manoeuvres as a "stern warning" to what it calls separatist forces and external interference, and some state material deployed the phrase "Smash the separatist scoundrels."

Taiwan’s defence ministry reported that two Chinese military aircraft and 11 ships were operating around the island in the previous 24 hours. Taipei says its forces are on high alert, mobilising troops and rehearsing rapid responses with U.S. made weaponry to practise repelling a potential attack. Taipei and its partners face a shrinking window of warning, analysts say, as exercises increasingly simulate blockades and strikes that would be used to isolate the island and interdict its ports.

The drills showcase new hardware and tactics. Video footage from the Eastern Theatre Command shows automated humanoid robots, microdrones and weaponised robotic dogs in simulated attacks, signalling Beijing’s growing embrace of autonomous systems in integrated operations. Military officials also say the exercises involve army, navy, air, artillery and Rocket Force elements executing sea air combat readiness patrols and blockade simulations aimed at seizing superiority over key maritime approaches.

The timing follows a U.S. announcement of an approximately $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan, which Chinese state commentary condemned as sending a wrong signal. The escalation complicates diplomatic calculations for Washington and its allies, who must weigh deterrence steps against the risk of further provocation and limited warning for a real crisis.

Economic consequences are immediate and material. The Taiwan Strait and adjacent South China Sea carry significant volumes of regional and global trade, with roughly one third of global container shipping transiting nearby waters, and Taiwan is central to global semiconductor supply chains. Even short disruptions could raise shipping insurance costs, reroute vessels, and add supply chain risk to firms reliant on advanced chips and electronics components, pressuring markets sensitive to production bottlenecks.

Longer term, the drills reflect a trend toward more complex, multi-domain exercises that blur training and coercion while integrating autonomous technologies. Policymakers in Taipei, Washington and across the region will be watching whether Beijing scales or repeats such postures, and how those choices reshape defence procurement, alliance commitments and corporate strategies for supply chain resilience.