Counting continues in Uganda as Museveni leads amid allegations

Vote counting is under way across Uganda after a tense presidential election that saw polls held on Jan. 15 and partial returns released on Jan. 16 showing a commanding lead for President Yoweri Museveni. With results from roughly 45 percent of polling stations tabulated, official tallies placed Museveni at about 76.25 percent of the vote, with opposition leader Robert "Bobi Wine" Kyagulanyi at about 19.85 percent and six other candidates sharing the remainder.

The early margin, if maintained, would hand Museveni a seventh term in office. Museveni, 81 and in power since 1986, told reporters after voting that he expected to win "80 percent" "if there’s no cheating." His long incumbency, bolstered by constitutional changes that removed age and term limits, has left many analysts skeptical that state institutions could allow an upset. For critics, the election is both a barometer of Museveni's grip on power and a test of Uganda's capacity to manage political transition peacefully.

The opposition has contested the integrity of the vote-counting process. Bobi Wine's camp said he was under house arrest during the counting period and that his movement was restricted. Campaign officials and party statements alleged that opposition polling agents were detained in rural areas and accused electoral officials of "massive ballot stuffing." Those claims have not been independently verified by electoral monitors, but they have already heightened tensions across the country.

Voting day was marred by logistical and technical problems. Numerous polling stations opened late—some as much as four hours after the scheduled 7:00 a.m. start—after biometric voter-verification machines failed to work and ballot boxes arrived late at some locations. Authorities also imposed internet restrictions that observers and media linked to broader outages, complicating communication and the ability of parties to report irregularities in real time. Polls were scheduled to close at 4 p.m., with the electoral commission stating it expected to release full results within 48 hours as counting proceeds.

The campaign itself had been frequently volatile. Security forces disrupted opposition rallies, and reports from the run-up to the vote described arrests, use of tear gas and live rounds at demonstrations, as well as at least one death and hundreds detained. Regional governments and international observers have long expressed concern about the lack of peaceful transfers of power in Uganda since independence, and memories of violence during the 2021 election—when international criticism warned the vote was neither free nor fair—remain fresh in diplomatic circles.

The immediate next phase will focus on the electoral commission's release of regional and national tallies and any independent verification of the opposition's allegations. The status of Bobi Wine's movement, the fate of detained polling agents, and official explanations for technical failures and the communications blackout will shape both domestic stability and international responses.

For many Ugandans and neighbors watching nervously, the outcome will do more than determine who occupies State House. It will signal whether long-standing institutional arrangements can withstand a fraught contest and whether the country can avoid the kind of unrest that has spilled across borders in parts of the region.