Decker: Customers Delay Projects; Q4 Beat Despite Sales Drop, FY26 Guidance Flat

Home Depot CEO Ted Decker framed the company’s fourth-quarter results around customers putting off large home improvement projects, citing low consumer confidence, job concerns, high prices and housing affordability as the main reasons for the pullback. Those same headwinds were central to management’s outlook as the retailer posted an earnings beat for Q4 even though sales fell 3.8% year-over-year.

The Q4 performance showed a narrower-than-expected gap between sales and results: Home Depot reported the 3.8% year-over-year sales decline yet still exceeded consensus estimates for the quarter. Decker addressed the divergence during today’s commentary, attributing the beat to underlying operational execution while warning that customer behavior on big-ticket projects remains muted.

Looking ahead, Home Depot issued fiscal 2026 guidance that anticipates comparable-store sales will be flat to up 2%. That FY26 comp range reflects the same factors Decker flagged: customers delaying large projects because they lack confidence, fear for job stability, face higher prices and contend with limited housing affordability. Management tied the conservative guidance directly to those consumer restraints rather than to short-term promotional or merchandising shifts.

The company’s message has clear implications for categories that depend on major renovations and remodels. Decker’s emphasis on postponed large projects suggests pressure on big-ticket merchandise and installation services that typically accompany whole-home remodels. Store-level traffic patterns and buying baskets that normally drive higher average ticket sizes could remain constrained if the cited confidence and housing issues persist through FY26.

Decker’s remarks and the flat-to-2% comp guidance set a cautious tone for the year. With Q4 delivering an earnings beat despite a 3.8% sales decline, Home Depot is signaling that operational efficiency helped offset weaker demand but that management expects customer hesitancy to continue shaping sales performance in FY26. Employees and store leaders will be watching how that guidance translates into merchandising, inventory and promotional plans over the coming quarters.