Europe braces for jet fuel shortages as Iran war disrupts travel

Europe’s summer travel season is being hit at the fuel tank before it reaches the runway. Airlines and airport operators are warning that the Iran war could leave the region short of jet fuel within weeks, a shock that would show up first for travelers as higher fares, fewer seats and last-minute schedule changes.

The most immediate risk is supply. Europe imports roughly 30% to 40% of its jet fuel, and at least half of that comes from the Middle East. With the Strait of Hormuz still under pressure, Airports Council International Europe has warned that the region could face a systemic shortage in about three weeks. That timing matters because airlines are trying to lock in fuel for the peak summer period, when any disruption can quickly ripple into cancellations, reroutes and tighter capacity.

Prices are already flashing red. Jet fuel costs rose 103% month-on-month as of March, a move that is squeezing airline margins and pushing carriers to rethink how much flying they can afford to schedule. Lufthansa said it would permanently withdraw 27 aircraft from its CityLine subsidiary, a stark sign that higher kerosene costs and industrial action are already forcing airlines to trim capacity rather than absorb the shock.

Brussels is now preparing a response of its own. The European Union plans to urge member states to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern jet fuel and consider boosting imports from the United States, where Europe has been seeing record inflows as traders scramble to replace disrupted supply. That shift may help refill tanks, but it also underlines how exposed Europe remains to a chokepoint far from its airports.

For travelers, the fallout is likely to be felt beyond the ticket price. Airlines facing higher fuel bills often pass costs through in fares, reduce frequencies on thinner routes and protect their most profitable services first. That can mean fewer last-minute options for families booking summer trips, more crowded flights on surviving routes and a higher chance that a weekend away becomes an expensive, disrupted itinerary.

The wider energy shock is also not confined to aviation. Higher fuel and energy costs can keep prices elevated for gas, air travel and other consumer goods, stretching household vacation budgets even before travelers reach the airport. If the Middle East disruption lasts, Europe’s airlines may spend the summer defending their schedules one flight at a time.