FedEx Freight forecasts up to 6% revenue growth after spin-off

FedEx Freight said it expects revenue to rise 4% to 6% in the seven months ending December 31, a forecast that gives investors an early read on whether the stand-alone trucking business can turn firmer industrial demand into better profits after leaving FedEx Corp. The Memphis-based less-than-truckload carrier also projected adjusted operating income growth of 0.8% to 7.5%, a range that points to modest momentum rather than a breakout year.

The guidance came only weeks after FedEx completed the FedEx Freight spin-off on June 1 and began regular-way trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker FDXF. FedEx distributed 80.1% of the shares to stockholders and kept 19.9%, with plans to dispose of the remaining stake within 24 months. FedEx also said investors received one share of FedEx Freight for every two shares of FedEx owned, and that the distribution was expected to be tax-free.

The numbers land against a freight market that is showing signs of stabilization. The Institute for Supply Management said its May 2026 Manufacturing PMI was 54.0%, the fifth straight month above 50 and a sign of expansion, after April’s 52.7%. Reuters noted that U.S. manufacturing activity had risen for five straight months and reached a four-year high in May, an important backdrop for a carrier whose volumes closely track industrial production, retail replenishment and shipper confidence.

FedEx Freight’s latest quarter showed both the promise and the pressure in that environment. Revenue rose 4.8% to $2.4 billion in the quarter ended May 31, topping analyst expectations of $2.26 billion, helped by higher fuel surcharges and heavier shipments. But average daily shipments fell 5.9% to 86.7 thousand, adjusted operating income dropped 23.9% to $363 million, and adjusted operating margin slipped to 15.1%. Revenue per shipment climbed 11.5% to $415.22, while weight per shipment rose 3.0% to 948 pounds.

For the full fiscal year ended May 31, revenue declined 1.1% to $8.8 billion and adjusted operating income fell 25.6% to about $1.1 billion. That makes the new seven-month outlook more than a simple earnings update: it is a test of whether FedEx Freight’s pricing, network scale and reliability can offset softer volume and post-separation costs. Incoming chief executive John Smith has said the company aims to be the largest pure-play LTL carrier in North America, and the market will now judge that plan on a shorter reporting calendar, with a stand-alone business that must prove its economics quickly.