Filling an F-150 Now Costs $145 as Iran War Drives Gas Prices Up

It now costs $144.65 to fill a Ford F-150, the nation's best-selling pickup truck, up $37.29 from before the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, according to a Joint Economic Committee Democratic minority analysis drawing on the truck's standard 36-gallon tank. The national average for regular gasoline climbed from $2.98 per gallon to $4.08 in a single month, topping $4 for the first time since 2022, as crude oil surged from around $70 to over $100 per barrel.

The pain extended across vehicle classes. A full tank for a Toyota RAV4 ran $58.26, up $15.02, or 35%, from before the conflict. Toyota Camry drivers paid $52.23 to fill up, $13.46 more than before February 28. Half of all U.S. states recorded price increases exceeding $1 per gallon. California averaged $5.870 per gallon, the highest in the country; Oklahoma was the lowest at $3.245.

The JEC analysis put the collective extra fuel bill at $8.4 billion between February 28 and March 31. The methodology used AAA's daily price tracking, Edmunds data on tank sizes, and federal fuel consumption figures from the Federal Highway Administration and the Energy Information Administration. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, independently estimated Americans spent about $8 billion more on gasoline over the same stretch.

The regional toll was uneven. Texans absorbed $1.04 billion in added fuel costs, Californians paid $970 million more, Florida drivers paid an extra $684 million, and North Carolina drivers paid $361 million beyond their pre-war baseline. Nationally, higher prices were on pace to cost drivers an extra $9.4 billion per month, roughly $34 per person. Southern states, where personal vehicle dependency is highest, faced a pace of $4.2 billion more per month, about $40 per person.

Much of the underlying pressure came from the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally routes one-fifth of global crude oil shipments. Diesel hit $5.45 per gallon nationally, with Arizona recording a 67% increase, a dynamic that threatened to push inflation higher across consumer goods dependent on trucking.

The macroeconomic drag reached well beyond the pump. Economists Neale Mahoney and Ryan Cummings at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research estimated the average U.S. household would spend $740 more on gasoline this year; an updated Stanford forecast raised that figure to $857 for the remainder of the year, roughly double the $360 average tax refund boost households received from recent federal tax law changes. J.P. Morgan analyst Michael Hanson warned the added cost "has to come at the expense of some other part of households' spending and/or accumulated savings." Pantheon Macroeconomics estimated higher fuel costs were reducing households' real incomes by $15 billion per month, compared to only $10 billion in combined extra tax refunds from February through April.

Stanford projected gas prices would peak above $4.25 per gallon in May. The broader financial picture darkened alongside: the 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed from just under 6% to 6.53% since the conflict began, while the S&P 500 fell 4.9% for the year and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 6.8%.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged the strain while defending the military effort. "Gas prices going up are going to hurt people a little bit. But they still have money to spend. They still have jobs," he said, pressing the administration to "finish this thing and finish it right." Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer offered a sharper verdict: "Donald Trump's failures are the Republican Party's failures. Every day we see more American workers out of jobs, higher energy prices, and costs rising across the board for American families."

The White House had celebrated falling gas prices in January as one of the administration's signature wins. With Stanford projecting prices above $4.25 in May, that claim had become a liability.