France cuts 2026 growth forecast to 0.7% amid weak start
France trimmed 2026 growth to 0.7% after a weak first half, raising pressure on a debt-heavy budget and on eurozone fiscal plans.
France’s Finance Ministry cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.7% from 0.9% in a mid-year public finances update to lawmakers. Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the downgrade reflected a weaker-than-expected start to the year and a more difficult international backdrop, including the conflict in the Middle East.
The revision was the second lower forecast for 2026 this year, after the government had already pared its outlook to 0.9% in mid-April. Gross domestic product stalled at 0.0% in the first quarter after rising 0.2% in the final three months of 2025. Foreign trade alone subtracted 0.7 percentage point from Q1 growth, and higher energy costs, shipping risks and fragile global demand weigh on Europe.
Growth assumptions feed directly into tax receipts, deficit projections and debt management, and France is already carrying public debt equal to 117.5% of GDP at the end of the first quarter of 2026. Lescure said France could miss its deficit-reduction target and may need additional savings measures. The government is looking at at least €4 billion in spending cuts to keep the deficit from exceeding 5% of GDP, while still aiming to bring it down to 3% of GDP by 2029 in line with European Union rules.
The Banque de France lowered its baseline 2026 GDP projection in June to around 0.5%, down from 0.9% in its March outlook, citing a disappointing first quarter, a worsening global environment and renewed inflationary pressure linked to the geopolitical shock. The European Commission’s spring forecast was slightly firmer at 0.8% growth for 2026, after 0.8% in 2025.
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