Goldman: NVIDIA Drops 4.5% After 73% Growth; Sell-the-News, Capex Concerns

Investors watched NVIDIA shares slip 4.5% on Feb. 26, 2026 despite the company reporting 73% year-over-year revenue growth and reiterating aggressive AI-related guidance, Goldman Sachs analysts said. The move produced a classic sell-the-news reaction that hit long positions across equity desks and prompted immediate client outreach from coverage teams at the firm.

Goldman Sachs analysts attributed the decline to a combination of profit-taking, sell-the-news dynamics and rising doubts about the sustainability of hyperscaler AI capital expenditures. The team cited profit-taking as an active force following a run-up that left some investors booking gains, while sustainability concerns centered on whether hyperscaler spending will remain elevated beyond the current cycle.

The analysts laid out a concrete shift in pace: they expect AI spending to grow 62% in 2026, down from 73% year-over-year growth in the prior period. That projected slowdown to 62% growth in AI budgets is central to their view that hardware demand from cloud hyperscalers could decelerate, a development that feeds directly into revenue pacing models used by institutional investors and corporate strategy teams.

For Goldman Sachs' deal teams and institutional sales desks, the drop and the 62% projection change the framing of client conversations about AI exposure. Coverage professionals are now balancing NVIDIA’s outsized revenue growth of 73% with the analysts’ warning that a lower AI-spending trajectory in 2026 may compress upside for suppliers dependent on hyperscaler capex.

Equity research and trading operations at the firm will be watching the next set of hyperscaler capex announcements and vendors’ guidance for signs that the 62% projection is on track. Goldman Sachs analysts will also track whether sell-the-news flows persist in the wake of large-cap earnings beats, and how profit-taking affects liquidity in high-conviction AI names.

The immediate takeaway for investors and internal teams is concrete: NVIDIA’s headline growth remains substantial at 73% year-over-year, but Goldman Sachs’ forecast of 62% AI spending growth in 2026 signals a meaningful slowing that could reshape demand assumptions for AI hardware among hyperscalers.