Goldman Sachs says M&A volumes on track to near 2021 record

Goldman Sachs said the deal market had recovered enough that merger and acquisition volumes this year were on pace to come close to the record set in 2021, a sign that corporate executives were moving past the caution that gripped boardrooms after geopolitical shocks and higher rates. John Waldron said at a financial conference in New York on May 28 that the bank’s backlogs looked good and activity remained strong, a read on a market that has reopened faster than many expected.

The rebound matters because it does not look like a simple broad-based burst of optimism. Goldman’s February 2026 outlook said 2025 had already seen a surge in dealmaking despite geopolitical uncertainty, slowing growth and higher tariffs, and it argued that the environment was primed for strategic growth. In that framework, lower rate expectations may be helping at the margin, but Goldman’s own case for the cycle leans more heavily on corporate repositioning, private markets and AI spending, which are pushing companies to reshape portfolios and chase scale in selected industries.

The market’s fragility was visible in March, when announced global deal value fell to around $39 billion in the second week after strikes on Iran rattled risk appetite. That slump suggested how quickly boardroom decision-making can freeze when geopolitical risk spikes. Yet activity recovered as companies and investors resumed larger transactions, implying that the underlying pipeline had not disappeared. For Goldman, that kind of snapback is especially valuable because advisory fees depend on the return of high-value mandates, not just a larger number of small transactions.

One of the clearest examples is the planned combination of McCormick with Unilever’s Foods business, announced March 31. The deal would create a global flavor company with about $20 billion in combined fiscal 2025 revenue, give Unilever shareholders 65.0% of the fully diluted combined company equity and leave Unilever with $15.7 billion in cash. Reuters-linked reporting put the value of Unilever’s food business at nearly $45 billion and the combined company at about $65 billion. Unilever said the deal would let it focus more on faster-growing personal-care businesses, while McCormick would gain a larger platform in global flavor categories.

That transaction captures the wider character of the rebound Goldman is betting on: fewer cautious tuck-ins, more strategic portfolio shifts and bigger deals that can move revenue, market share and balance sheets at once. If the pace holds, 2026 could become less a story of generalized economic confidence than of a concentrated surge among the largest companies, those with the balance-sheet strength to act while others wait.