US beef prices stay high as Fourth of July grilling nears

A summer barbecue for 10 people costs about $161, with hamburger beef up 14% from a year earlier. USDA’s Jan. 30 cattle report put the national herd at 86.2 million head as of Jan. 1, 2026, the smallest since 1951.

The pressure starts on the ranch. Drought, fresh wildfire damage and expensive feed have kept ranchers from rebuilding herds, even after some rains. USDA said the beef cow herd stood at 27.6 million head at the start of the year, while cattle on feed for slaughter totaled 13.8 million head, down 3% from a year earlier. Brenda Masek, a Nebraska cattle producer, said she was not planning to expand further.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ May 2026 data show the average retail price of lean and extra lean ground beef at $8.624 per pound, a record in the series. Beef is one of the most visible food items in the inflation picture, and the timing matters because families tend to buy larger quantities around Independence Day.

Some hosts are already switching proteins. Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute said the same 2026 barbecue basket works out to about $16 per person, with chicken breast up just 3% year over year, pork butt flat and pork ribs up 3%. That pricing gap is pushing some consumers toward chicken and other substitutes as they try to keep grocery bills under control.

Washington has tried to ease the squeeze. In February 2026, Donald Trump signed an executive order expanding the in-quota tariff-rate quota for lean beef trimmings by 80,000 metric tons for calendar year 2026, with the additional imports allocated to Argentina in quarterly tranches beginning Feb. 13. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association opposes more imports, arguing they would not necessarily lower prices and warning that weaker inspection rules could raise animal-health risks.

Bill Bullard, chief executive of R-CALF USA, said the absence of Mexican cattle imports has worsened the supply-demand imbalance. Washington has blocked those imports for more than a year over New World screwworm concerns.