Hong Kong economy grows 5.9%, strongest quarterly pace in nearly five years
Hong Kong posted 5.9% growth in the first quarter, but the surge was powered mainly by exports, visitors and finance, not a broad consumer boom.
Hong Kong’s economy grew 5.9% in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, the strongest quarterly pace in nearly five years, but the headline number was driven more by trade, tourism and financial activity than by a clean, broad-based domestic rebound.
The advance estimate showed the city expanding for a 13th straight quarter and accelerating from a revised 4.0% gain in the previous quarter. On a seasonally adjusted basis, real GDP rose 2.9% from the fourth quarter, underscoring that momentum was firm even before the year fully settled in. Still, officials left their full-year forecast unchanged at 2.5% to 3.5% for 2026, after 3.5% growth in 2025, a sign they expect the first-quarter burst to cool.
The details point to why. Gross domestic fixed capital formation jumped 17.7% from a year earlier, total exports of goods rose 23.8% in real terms and imports of goods climbed 29.9%. Exports of services increased 3.5%, while imports of services rose 3.9%. Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po had said before the release that the quarter was being supported by stronger private consumption, exports and fixed investment, but the most striking gains still came from the external side of the economy.
Visitor traffic also helped. Hong Kong recorded about 14.31 million arrivals in the first quarter, up 17% from a year earlier, including 11.08 million visitors from mainland China, an increase of 20%. The Hong Kong government has said full-year arrivals in 2026 could exceed 53.8 million and related spending could top HK$240 billion, up 9.5% from 2025, suggesting tourism is adding real support to the recovery.
Other indicators showed the lift was not confined to GDP. Merchandise exports surged 35.8% in March from a year earlier, while imports jumped 41.2%. Retail sales value rose 19.3% in February. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.7% for January to March, down from 3.8% in the December to February period, signaling that the labor market remained relatively steady.
The government said persistent tensions in the Middle East posed downside risks and that it had taken targeted measures to protect energy supply stability. Revised first-quarter GDP figures and a revised 2026 forecast are due on May 15, when officials will have a clearer read on whether Hong Kong’s strongest growth in years marks a durable recovery or mainly reflects a powerful, export-led surge.
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