Hormuz reopening may not restore global energy trade stability

The Strait of Hormuz’s reopening did not erase the damage done to global energy trade. The narrow waterway, only 29 nautical miles wide at its tightest point, had already been transformed into a test of how much of the world’s oil and gas system could be rerouted, insured and absorbed before prices surged again.

In 2025, about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and oil products moved through Hormuz, equal to roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and about one-quarter of seaborne oil trade. The strait also carried about one-fifth of global LNG trade, with about 93% of Qatar’s LNG exports and 96% of the United Arab Emirates’ LNG exports dependent on passage through the chokepoint. Its two-mile-wide shipping lanes and two-mile buffer zone made the route efficient in normal times and vulnerable in a crisis.

The International Energy Agency said the Middle East conflict that began on February 28, 2026, created the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. By June 9, the agency said the de facto closure had lasted more than three months and shipping through Hormuz had been extremely limited. Donald Trump said the strait would reopen within “the next day or two,” but the shock had already pushed buyers, carriers and governments into a different operating model.

Brent crude ended late May roughly one-third above pre-conflict levels, while Dutch TTF natural gas prices climbed more than 40% between late February and late May. The pain did not stop at crude. Diesel and jet fuel also absorbed the strain, showing how a disruption in one corridor could ripple through refined products, freight costs and household energy bills far beyond the Gulf.

The IEA said only about 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels per day of pipeline capacity existed to bypass Hormuz, a fraction of the volumes that usually flowed through it. About 80% of the oil that transited the strait went to Asia, and China and India were the biggest importers. That geography mattered: cargoes could not simply be diverted without new contracts, longer voyages and higher insurance premiums.

Policy makers responded with scale. On March 11, IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the agency’s largest stock draw in history. On March 20, it urged governments, businesses and households to cut demand to ease market pressure. The IEA also said the conflict was reshaping investment plans as countries and companies reassessed route risk and supply security.

Iran sharpened that uncertainty in April, threatening a $2 million toll on ships passing through the strait. On April 17, Tehran said Hormuz was “completely open” for the remainder of the ceasefire period, and on April 19 Trump said the United States had seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship trying to evade the blockade. Even if traffic normalized, the market had already shifted toward rerouting, stockpiling and a more expensive, less trusting energy order.