India advises diplomats' families to leave Bangladesh ahead of election

Indian authorities have advised families and dependents of diplomats and other officials posted in Bangladesh to return to India as a precaution amid mounting pre-election security concerns. The advisory, issued on Jan. 21, applies to dependents at the High Commission in Dhaka and Indian diplomatic posts in Chattogram, Khulna, Rajshahi and Sylhet, and was accompanied by a reported change in posting classification to "non-family."

The non-family designation places Bangladesh in the highest security category India applies to diplomatic missions, alongside countries cited in internal guidance such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and South Sudan. Officials emphasized that, despite the temporary recall of dependents, the High Commission in Dhaka and India’s other posts "will remain fully operational" and diplomats will continue their duties, with the move characterized as an internal readjustment. Reports said the dependents' return is voluntary and that timing for their return to Bangladesh was not immediately clear.

The advisory comes as Bangladesh prepares for a parliamentary election scheduled for Feb. 12, 2026. Indian and regional reporting linked the move to a volatile on-the-ground environment marked by large-scale political violence, street protests and counter-protests as campaigning accelerates. Security agencies in Bangladesh have reportedly deployed more than 90,000 military personnel ahead of the vote, and officials pointed to threats from extremist elements and attacks targeting minority communities as part of the rationale for precautionary steps. New Delhi also raised diplomatic concerns late last year when it summoned Bangladesh’s high commissioner in December to convey worries about threats to the Indian mission and attacks on minorities.

For diplomats and defence planners, the non-family classification is a signal that risk assessments have risen materially. Operationally, it allows New Delhi to reduce vulnerabilities to dependents while maintaining full diplomatic functions, but it also signals a public deterioration in bilateral trust. India and Bangladesh have had close economic and strategic ties in recent years; the advisory therefore has implications beyond personnel safety.

Economically, elevated political risk can translate quickly into higher costs for private actors and state-linked projects. Firms with staff or operations in Bangladesh may face higher insurance premiums and risk allowances, and banks and investors routinely reprice exposure to countries flagged as higher risk. For cross-border trade and services, even short-lived disruptions to staff rotations and consular services can slow commercial approvals, project implementation and investor due diligence, tightening financing conditions for deals perceived as politically sensitive.

Politically, the move underscores an increasingly fraught bilateral environment. Officials and reporting note a deterioration in ties since August 2024, with accounts indicating leadership changes and displacement of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024. New Delhi’s precautionary posture may be intended to limit diplomatic exposure while preserving channels for engagement; it also serves as a public signal to Dhaka and to regional partners that New Delhi views the security trajectory as concerning.

Key questions remain unanswered: when families will return, how Dhaka will respond diplomatically, and whether the security situation around the election will stabilize. For investors and policymakers, the advisory is a near-term warning to reassess operational contingencies and for governments to prepare for potential economic spillovers if unrest persists.