India forecasts first below-average monsoon in three years

India’s southwest monsoon has been forecast at about 90% of the long-period average, the first below-normal outlook in three years and a warning that reaches far beyond the weather map. Because rainfed agriculture covers about 51% of India’s net sown area and produces nearly 40% of total food output, even a modest shortfall can ripple through crop yields, vegetable prices, milk and fodder costs, rural spending and the country’s inflation picture.

M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, announced the forecast in Mumbai as the India Meteorological Department kept the 2026 season in the below-normal category in its second-stage update. The timing matters because farmers, reservoir managers and power planners are now moving into the busiest pre-monsoon stretch, with the southwest monsoon normally setting in over Kerala around June 1, plus or minus about seven days.

The department said the monsoon core zone, which covers most of India’s rainfed agriculture, is most likely to receive below-normal rainfall. That raises the risk of softer farm incomes and weaker rural demand just as the broader economy is trying to maintain momentum. It also complicates inflation management, since food supplies remain highly sensitive to rainfall swings. Lower reservoir levels could tighten water availability and put added pressure on hydroelectric generation, leaving state governments with less room to maneuver on food stocks and price stability.

The forecast was not uniform across the country. The weather office said some pockets of northwest India, northeast India, the eastern south peninsula and adjoining east-central India could still receive normal to above-normal rainfall. That regional split matters because a national average can hide sharp local differences, as India learned in 2023, the last below-normal monsoon year. That year, all-India seasonal rainfall came in at 94% of the long-period average, while the monsoon core zone still received 101%, showing how uneven rainfall can cushion some farm belts while leaving others exposed.

The latest outlook also sits against a shifting climate backdrop. In April, the department had projected 92% of the long-period average, with a model error of plus or minus 5%, and cited weak La Niña-like conditions moving toward ENSO-neutral, possible El Niño development during the season, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions and slightly below-normal winter and spring snow cover. The long-period average used for 2026 is 87 cm, based on the 1971-2020 period, and the department defines normal monsoon rainfall as 96% to 104% of that average.

For India, the forecast is more than a rainfall estimate. It is an early signal that one of the economy’s biggest risk factors may again test food-price stability, farm output and the pace of rural recovery.