Italy's Meloni Suffers Rare Defeat as Judicial Reform Referendum Fails

More than 14 million Italians rejected Giorgia Meloni's bid to overhaul the country's judiciary on Monday, with the "No" camp winning almost 54% of the vote against the government-backed "Yes" campaign, which secured about 46%, according to final results released by the Interior Ministry. Turnout over the two-day ballot, which began Sunday, was considerably higher than expected at almost 59%, following a polarizing campaign. For a prime minister who had sailed through three-plus years without a meaningful setback, the result landed with unusual force.

Voters were asked whether they approved a constitutional law, often called the "Nordio Reform" after Justice Minister Carlo Nordio, that would have amended the Italian Constitution most notably by separating career paths between judges and public prosecutors, splitting the High Council of the Judiciary into two distinct bodies, and selecting members by sortition rather than traditional election, as well as establishing a High Disciplinary Court to oversee disciplinary proceedings. Critics slammed it as a political power grab that fails to address the real challenges, from years-long trials to prison overcrowding.

Meloni, the leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, has led an uncharacteristically stable government since taking office in October 2022. Parliament approved the reform in October 2025, but it failed to secure the two-thirds majority needed to avoid a popular vote. She campaigned hard for passage, accusing the judiciary of left-wing bias, only to watch the vote snowball into something larger than the reform itself. With political tensions already running high, public debate intensified in the final weeks before the vote, turning it into a de facto confidence test on Meloni's leadership.

Meloni said the result was "a lost opportunity to modernise Italy" and stressed that "this does not change our commitment to continue, with seriousness and determination, to work for the good of the nation and to honour the mandate entrusted to us." She ruled out any suggestion of resignation, a pointed contrast to her predecessor Matteo Renzi, who stepped down after his own failed referendum a decade ago.

The opposition wasted no time framing the night as a turning point. Former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, leader of the Five Star Movement, posted online immediately after projections were published: "We did it! Long live the Constitution!" At a press conference, he sharpened the message: "It's an eviction notice for this government after four years." Elly Schlein, leader of the centre-left Democratic Party, gathered supporters in Rome to celebrate the defeat of what she called a "damaging" reform, saying the vote sent a "clear political message" ahead of next year's elections: "The country is demanding an alternative, and we have a responsibility to organise it."

Analysts were equally pointed. Daniele Albertazzi, a professor of politics at the University of Surrey, called it a "bad, bad result" for Meloni, saying: "It means she has lost the Italian electorate on a major issue in her manifesto, and one of the key proposals of the right... for the past 30 years." "This defeat punctures Meloni's image of strength, weakening her status as a pillar of domestic stability and as a consistent player in an increasingly volatile European political landscape," said Jess Middleton, senior Europe analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

The defeat arrives at a precarious moment. The New York Times reported that it compounds a difficult month for Meloni, whose reputation was also dented when it emerged her government was not forewarned about U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, raising questions about whether she truly occupies a privileged place in President Trump's circle of European partners. Domestic frustration over rising energy prices has added to the pressure.

The referendum, only the fifth constitutional referendum in Italian history, arrived with Meloni one year out from a general election she can no longer approach from a position of unchallenged strength. Her broader constitutional ambitions, including a plan to shift Italy to a fixed-term prime ministership elected by direct popular vote rather than assembled through coalition negotiations, now look considerably more fragile. "The key question now is whether these disparate opposition forces can maintain some cohesion and present themselves as a credible alternative ahead of next year's vote," Middleton said.

For now, Meloni's coalition holds and her mandate runs into 2027. But Monday's result made Italy's long-dormant political competition look genuinely open again.