Jose Cuervo owner warns of tough 2026 after RNDC split

Becle S.A.B. de C.V., the Mexico-based owner of Jose Cuervo and the world’s largest tequila producer, told investors on Feb. 27 that 2026 will be a “year of transition” as it restructures its U.S. distribution network and confronts weaker demand for hard liquor in key North American markets. The company said the shift follows the end of its partnership in February with Republic National Distributing Company, a leading U.S. distributor that left California in what has been described as a chaotic exit late last year.

The warning comes as Becle faces multiple pressures: a distribution overhaul that the company says could disrupt shipments and inventory, and broader consumption trends it described variously as shrinking demand for hard liquor, a turbulent trade environment and a thirst for hard spirits declining in North America. Becle signaled that these combined strains will weigh on near-term sales and spending, and that its shares fell after fourth-quarter results missed forecasts.

“This will be a transition year,” Rodrigo de la Maza, Becle’s chief financial officer, told analysts, framing the overhaul as an intentional but costly repositioning. He added, “Changes of this scale take time to fully stabilize and may create temporary disruptions, shipping volatility, inventory realignment and added complexity.” The company said the effects from the restructuring should mainly be felt in the first half of 2026, with executives expecting U.S. growth to begin to return in 2027.

Operationally, the immediate task is rebuilding a U.S. distribution footprint “right away,” the company said, by prioritizing new partnerships that it believes will better position Becle beyond 2026. Ending the RNDC tie puts Becle in a period of partner search and transition across the United States, where the firm sells Jose Cuervo family tequilas and other spirits largely across North America.

For retailers and wholesalers, the combination of a distributor change and an already soft category raises the risk of short-term shortages, promotional pullbacks and inventory realignment. Companies that depend on consistent supply chains will watch the early months of 2026 for signs of shipping volatility and whether retailers face gaps in shelf availability for key SKUs.

From a market perspective, Becle’s announcement highlights two longer-run trends: consolidation and fragility in U.S. distribution networks, and weakening on- and off-premise demand for hard spirits in North America. Management’s forecast that the disruption will concentrate in the first half of 2026 and that growth will resume in 2027 signals a deliberate tolerance for near-term pain in exchange for longer-term control of supply and channel strategy.

Investors and industry analysts will be seeking specifics that the company did not provide at the investor warning: names of new U.S. partners, quantitative guidance on 2026 sales value and a clearer timetable for inventory realignment. Those disclosures will be central to assessing whether the transition delivers a stronger distribution platform or leaves lasting damage to Becle’s market share in the United States.