Labour faces historic defeat as Wales election nears major realignment

Labour’s century-long grip on Welsh politics appeared to be ending as counting began for the Senedd election, with party sources telling the BBC that the result would break 27 years of devolved dominance. For a party that has led Welsh government since 1999 and held the majority of Wales’s Westminster seats since 1922, the scale of the potential reversal marked a rupture in the political order of Cardiff Bay.

The election was being fought under a redesigned system that made the contest look even more fluid. The Senedd expanded from 60 to 96 members, with voters in 16 new constituencies each electing six representatives through closed-list proportional representation. The Welsh Parliament said the new chamber was meant to improve scrutiny of the Welsh Government, which it holds to account across health, education, housing, transport, local government, the environment and the Welsh language, while also agreeing Welsh taxes.

Polls suggested the break with Labour rule could be driven by both public anger and the mechanics of the new system. A final YouGov MRP model projected Plaid Cymru on 43 seats, Reform UK on 34, Labour on 12, the Conservatives on four and the Liberal Democrats on one. Ipsos put Plaid Cymru on 30%, Reform UK on 25% and Labour on 15% in an April 2026 poll. Under that arithmetic, smaller shifts in vote share were translating into much bigger changes in seats than would have been likely under the old electoral system.

The political stakes were heightened by the position of First Minister Eluned Morgan, whose seat was reported to be under threat. If Labour fell to the level suggested by the final polling, the party would not only lose its dominance in the Senedd but could also be pushed out of the first ministership for the first time since devolution began.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has tried to frame the campaign as a straight fight with Reform UK rather than Labour, a sign of how far the battlefield has shifted. In most MRP simulations, Plaid Cymru would need Labour support to command a majority, putting coalition arithmetic at the centre of Welsh politics.

Polls closed at 22:00 BST on Thursday 7 May 2026, and the result now carries significance far beyond one chamber in Cardiff Bay. A post-Labour-first Wales would reshape devolved government, test whether Plaid Cymru can lead, and offer the clearest evidence yet that the old Welsh political settlement has given way to something more fragmented and unpredictable.