Mexico's finance minister sees faster growth than OECD forecasts

Mexico’s finance minister is arguing that a wave of public investment can push the economy past the OECD’s subdued forecast, but the gap between the two sides remains wide. Edgar Amador Zamora said Mexico could grow faster than the OECD expects, pointing to more than 700 billion pesos, or about $40.5 billion, in projects for roads, ports and electricity generation that he said should start lifting activity in the current quarter.

The contrast is stark. The OECD has projected growth of 0.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, while Amador is leaning on infrastructure spending and inflation-management measures to make a stronger case. He said those projects would help support domestic demand and, over time, improve productivity. The government is also tying its hopes to a broader 2026-2030 mixed public-private investment plan worth 5.6 trillion pesos across eight sectors, with 54% of the money earmarked for energy, 16% for railways and 14% for highways.

That optimism runs into a more cautious international reading of Mexico’s economy. In its February 26 Economic Survey, the OECD said Mexico had been significantly affected by heightened global uncertainty and changes in U.S. trade policy. It said growth moderated in 2025, with non-automotive exports and private consumption doing most of the work, while private investment remained weak and public spending was constrained by efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit. The organization also warned that tariffs, slower U.S. growth, global uncertainty and tighter fiscal policy could hold back the rebound.

The stakes are high because Mexico’s manufacturing and export economy is tightly linked to the United States. Reuters noted that exports outside sectors such as computer equipment are likely to feel the impact of tariffs and softer American demand, which would limit the boost from domestic infrastructure if external conditions worsen. Amador acknowledged that international forecasters have misread Mexico before, saying it would not be the first time the country outperformed expectations. He pointed to last year, when some analysts called for a recession and the economy still expanded by almost 1%.

The government’s broader policy mix also reflects that tension between caution and ambition. In September 2025, it projected 2026 GDP growth of 1.8% to 2.8%, a budget deficit narrowing from 4.32% of GDP in 2025 to 4.10% in 2026, inflation ending 2026 at 3.0%, and the benchmark rate falling toward 6% through the year. It also set aside about 263.5 billion pesos for Pemex in 2026. Whether those bets translate into durable growth now hinges on whether public investment can offset weak private capital spending and a slower U.S. cycle, or whether the OECD’s warning proves closer to the mark.