Novo Nordisk says 2026 sales will fall sharply, GLP-1 stocks tumble

Novo Nordisk warned investors on Feb. 3 that it "expects sales and operating profit to decline between 5% and 13% in 2026 at constant exchange rates," saying the hit is driven by U.S. pricing pressure and increased competition in GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. The surprise guidance was notably worse than analysts' roughly 2% decline forecast and set off sharp market moves.

Market reaction was immediate and volatile. One market summary said, "Following this announcement, Novo Nordisk's American depositary shares dropped by 11%." A separate trading-focused outlet reported a 20% plunge in morning trading. Both figures are reflected in contemporaneous market commentary and underscore investor worries about near-term revenue erosion and profit guidance.

The guidance contrasts with a strong 2025 performance. Novo reported a 10% increase in sales and a 6% rise in operating profit for 2025, outpacing most analyst expectations. Semaglutide-based therapies remain the company's growth engine: the two key drugs generated DKK 152.5 billion in the first nine months of 2025, including DKK 51.1 billion in the third quarter, although reporting noted that "sales momentum for both drugs has slowed in recent quarters."

The company is contending with policy-driven price concessions in the United States. Novo agreed to lower the prices of its GLP-1 weight-loss medications for U.S. government health programs and cash payers, a move the company said will have a "negative low single-digit impact on global revenue in 2026." The change is tied to broader White House efforts to "make obesity treatments more widely available" and is expected to lower monthly costs for Medicare, Medicaid, and some cash-paying patients, potentially broadening access even as near-term revenue declines.

Price history highlights the scale of the adjustment. After the launches of Wegovy in 2021 and a rival in 2023, these drugs "retailed for about $1,000 per month in pharmacies." Faced with political pressure to lower costs in the U.S., they are now offered on company websites with starting prices of $149 to $299, in part reflecting a previously negotiated deal with the Trump administration.

Analysts and investors are recalibrating long-term market size and company prospects. Goldman Sachs has cut its estimate for global obesity drug sales by 2030 to $105 billion from $130 billion, citing "price erosion and changing customer-use patterns." Other analysts noted that pricing declines make volume growth essential: "Prices have come down quite sharply, so you certainly need volumes to pick up a lot," said Rajesh Kumar of HSBC. Morningstar's Karen Andersen added that "pricing pressure had brought forward a hit to revenue most assumed would come in 2027, not 2026," and that "We've already got pretty steep discounts built into our model."

Novo is not only facing external pressures but is undertaking cost actions internally. A September 2025 restructuring plan aims to reduce the global workforce by about 9,000 employees and to realize roughly DKK 8 billion in annualized savings by 2026 as the company seeks to reinvest in diabetes and obesity businesses.

The warning on 2026 underscores a broader industry inflection point: policy-driven price concessions and accelerating competition, including oral formulations and new entrants, are forcing established GLP-1 makers to trade higher prices for broader access. For Novo Nordisk, the challenge will be whether increased patient numbers and pipeline advances can offset accelerated price erosion and restore the growth trajectory investors had come to expect.