Pentagon draft finds China likely loaded more than 100 ICBMs into silos

A draft Pentagon assessment dated Dec. 22, 2025 concludes that China has likely loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles into three recently identified silo fields near the country’s border with Mongolia. The document, described by U.S. Department of Defense officials as an internal assessment, marks a significant estimate of scale beyond earlier Pentagon disclosures about the existence of the fields.

The draft identifies the missiles as solid fueled DF 31 family ICBMs, a Dong Feng series that analysts say uses three stage solid propellant motors. The Center for Strategic and International Studies Missile Defense Project has previously estimated DF 31 variants can reach roughly 4,350 to 7,270 miles and that a single warhead on those missiles might weigh on the order of 500 kilograms with an inferred yield in the low hundreds of kilotons. Those technical appraisals provide context for the Pentagon assessment, though the draft itself does not provide detailed public technical appendices.

Strategically the draft warns that, in sufficient volume, strikes from the expanded silo force could seriously challenge and disrupt U.S. presence in or around a conflict in the Asia Pacific region. The assessment also notes a broader diplomatic posture, saying Beijing "continues to see no appetite … for pursuing such measures or more comprehensive arms control discussions," language that signals limited immediate prospects for negotiated limits on the new force structure.

Beijing pushed back against characterizations of a rapid buildup. Chinese officials described such reporting as efforts to "smear and defame China and deliberately mislead the international community." The draft status of the Pentagon assessment and the lack of a public final report leave open questions about the degree of certainty behind the specific count of missiles and the timelines for when they were placed.

U.S. defense officials have previously confirmed the existence of the silo fields while withholding a public estimate of how many warheads or missiles were loaded. Independent verification will hinge on additional intelligence, commercial satellite imagery and on the Defense Department’s willingness to declassify elements of its assessment. Analysts warn that confirmation of the Pentagon’s estimate would accelerate strategic debates in Washington over force posture, missile defenses and allied contingency planning across the region.

For U.S. policymakers, the assessment will likely intensify pressure to increase deterrence measures and accelerate procurement of missile defenses and resilient basing. It also raises prospects for renewed congressional debates over defense budgets in fiscal 2026 and beyond, as lawmakers weigh the cost of offsetting a larger Chinese silo based force.

The development adds to a pattern of rapid modernization that arms control experts and scientific monitors have described as significant and sustained. With the draft not finalized, officials on both sides of the Pacific face a narrowing window to shape the diplomatic and fiscal responses, while the broader international community watches for independent confirmation and for any shift in Beijing’s willingness to engage on limits to strategic forces.