Poll finds many Americans doubt U.S. will survive another 250 years

Americans are heading toward the nation’s 250th birthday with a striking level of doubt about whether the country can hold together at all. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 38% of respondents said they do not think the United States will still exist as a single country 250 years from now, while 62% said it will. The same survey found 64% saying American democracy is in danger of failing, a sign that the semiquincentennial is arriving amid deep anxiety about the durability of the political system.

The poll was conducted June 12-15, 2026, using Ipsos’s probability-based KnowledgePanel and included 1,537 adults nationwide. It showed that concerns have sharpened since last August, when 57% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll said American democracy was in danger of failing. That rise suggests the country’s worries are not fading as the 250th anniversary approaches; they are hardening into a broader judgment that the institutions built in 1776 are under strain.

The atmosphere around the anniversary has only intensified that feeling. President Donald Trump has inserted himself into July 4 and 250th-anniversary planning, including a White House cage match on his birthday and a major July 4 event in Washington that doubles as a political rally. His allies have accused Democrats of abuse of power and political violence, while Democrats have said Trump himself is the threat to democracy and criticized him for using federal law enforcement against opponents. Against that backdrop, the poll reflects not just partisan irritation but a wider fear that political conflict is becoming more dangerous and less containable.

Recent trauma also hangs over the public mood. Republicans point to the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol and multiple assassination attempts against Trump as evidence of violence directed at conservatives. Democrats see the same period as proof that Trump has pushed the country further toward institutional stress. The clash over those narratives has become part of the anniversary itself, turning a national celebration into a test of whether Americans still agree on the legitimacy of their own system.

The official machinery for the milestone is in place. Congress created the U.S. Semiquincentennial Commission in 2016 to plan the commemoration, and the bipartisan group uses the America250 brand. The White House created Task Force 250 by executive order in January 2025 to coordinate its own celebration plans, and its semiquincentennial page says July 4, 2026 will be “the most important milestone in our country’s history.” The polling suggests that milestone arrives with something closer to doubt than consensus.