Putin faces pressure to choose war or economic relief at forum

Drone smoke over St. Petersburg and blunt warnings from Vladimir Putin’s inner circle turned Russia’s flagship investment forum into a stress test of the wartime bargain the Kremlin has asked the public to accept: national power abroad in exchange for tighter conditions at home.

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum opened June 3 at ExpoForum with more than 150 sessions, a theme of “Pragmatic Dialog: the Path to a Stable Future,” and a roster that the organizers said drew participation from more than 130 countries. A Russia-U.S. business dialog was on the program for the second time, and Saudi Arabia was the guest country, a reminder that the Kremlin still wants the forum to project openness even as war and sanctions define Russia’s economy.

That pitch was undercut within hours by Ukrainian drone strikes on an oil terminal in St. Petersburg and a warship in dry dock at a nearby naval base. The attacks sent smoke across parts of the city and put the war in view of the same business leaders, officials and political insiders gathered to discuss investment, technology, artificial intelligence, financial markets and healthcare. For a forum meant to signal stability, the message was stark: the fighting had reached Russia’s commercial heartland.

Inside the Kremlin-aligned debate, two versions of the future are now colliding. One side argues that Russia should keep fighting and prepare for a longer confrontation with the West. The other sees an ending to the war as the only realistic path to economic relief after years of sanctions, military spending and weakened normal life. Some elites are already describing Russia’s roughly $3 trillion economy as stagnating as the war grinds on.

Maxim Oreshkin, Putin’s deputy chief of staff, pushed back against hopes that sanctions would soon be lifted or that the old relationship with the West would return. That hard line reflected the broader pressure on Putin, who has long ruled by balancing competing interests among powerful groups. At this forum, that balancing act was visible in public, with the Kremlin’s wartime message increasingly asking elites and citizens alike to absorb prolonged strain in return for promises of strength and survival.

Putin was due to speak at the plenary session on June 5, giving him another stage to defend that bargain before an audience that was already hearing how costly it may become.