Restore Britain could split Reform vote in Makerfield by-election

Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain is emerging as the spoiler that could reshape Makerfield without winning it. New polling suggests the party may pull enough voters from Reform UK to narrow Robert Kenyon’s path and hand Andy Burnham a cleaner route to Westminster.

The by-election will be held on Thursday 18 June 2026 after Josh Simons resigned the Labour-held seat on 14 May to clear the way for Burnham, Greater Manchester’s mayor, who has since been selected as Labour’s candidate. Makerfield is being treated as a Labour-Reform marginal, and Labour won it at the 2024 general election with 45.2% of the vote.

The first Survation constituency poll put Labour on 43%, Reform on 40% and Restore Britain on 7%, already showing how quickly a third force on the right could tighten the race. A later constituency poll went further, putting Burnham on 49%, Reform on 39% and Restore Britain on 8%, while a leaked survey reported Burnham on 35%, Reform on 24% and Restore Britain on 13%. Taken together, the numbers suggest that even a small transfer of voters away from Reform could have outsized consequences.

That is the central calculation for Reform, which has chosen Robert Kenyon as its candidate and needs its 2024 supporters to stay put. A Find Out Now poll reported by The Telegraph found that 62% of those who voted Reform two years ago said they would still back the party now, while 11% were undecided, a sign of resilience but also of real vulnerability.

Prof Sir John Curtice said Restore Britain was making life “much more difficult” for Reform UK and could hand victory to Labour. Luke Tryl of More in Common, speaking about research and focus groups, said the evidence points to Restore Britain potentially taking votes from Reform. That split matters in a contest where Burnham’s national profile and Labour’s local base may be enough if the right fractures just slightly.

For Burnham, the by-election has become more than a test of Labour’s hold on Makerfield. He has been eyeing a return to Westminster and a challenge to Keir Starmer’s leadership, and the outcome will show whether Reform’s rise can be blunted not by Labour alone, but by a smaller party drawing away the voters it most needs.