Reuters poll sees Nikkei climbing to 69,000 by 2027

Japan’s market is racing far enough ahead of the tape that even bullish forecasters are struggling to keep up. The Nikkei jumped nearly 10% from its May 20 low of 59,292.25 to a record intraday high of 65,408.87 on May 25, then finished at 64,996.09 on May 26, while a median analyst forecast now sees 62,800 by the end of 2026 and 69,000 by the end of 2027.

That matters well beyond Tokyo. The Nikkei has become a real-time gauge of global appetite for AI-linked stocks, especially for U.S. investors trying to gauge whether the artificial intelligence trade still has room to run. Japan’s rally is being powered by the same forces that have driven U.S. tech higher: enthusiasm for AI, strong corporate earnings and a broad risk-on mood that has helped push technology shares into double-digit gains.

SoftBank Group has emerged as the clearest symbol of that trade. Its shares hit a record high and its market value climbed above ¥40 trillion after a 40% surge since May 20. In one session alone, SoftBank jumped 19.85% after Nvidia earnings reinforced confidence that AI spending remains strong. The move shows how closely Japan’s biggest AI-linked names are now tied to the same narrative driving U.S. megacaps.

Foreign money has also been a major prop. Overseas investors bought a net 2.38 trillion yen of Japanese stocks in the week through April 18, following a record 3.94 trillion yen weekly net purchase the week before. Japan’s corporate governance reforms have helped make that capital more durable, by raising expectations for shareholder returns and better capital allocation. But investor concern is also rising that those reforms could be rolled back, which would weaken one of the market’s key support beams.

Even some of Japan’s own optimists say the move has gotten ahead of their models. Nomura Securities’ head of macro research Yunosuke Ikeda said he remains bullish on stocks, but added that the Nikkei’s climb was “just too sharp to catch up with” as a forecaster. He had been looking for 63,000 in December and 65,000 a year later. In February, the outlook was far more restrained, with strategists then expecting the index around 60,000 by mid-2027.

For U.S. investors, the message is clear: Japan is no longer just a regional trade. It is part of the global AI re-rating, and the next leg will depend on whether corporate reform, foreign inflows and tech enthusiasm can outrun disappointment in any one of them.