Rhun ap Iorwerth set to become Wales first minister as Labour looks set to abstain

Rhun ap Iorwerth was on the brink of becoming Wales’s first Plaid Cymru first minister after Plaid emerged as the largest party in the new 96-member Senedd, but the governing math still depends on what Labour does in the chamber. Plaid won 43 seats in the 7 May election, short of the 49 needed for an outright majority, while Reform UK took 34, Welsh Labour 9, the Welsh Conservatives 7, the Wales Green Party 2 and the Welsh Liberal Democrats 1.

That arithmetic means abstention matters as much as allegiance. If all 96 members voted, ap Iorwerth would need six more votes beyond Plaid’s own 43. If Welsh Labour abstained and every other member voted, the number of votes cast would fall to 87, which would still leave ap Iorwerth one vote short of the 44 needed to win a simple majority. In practice, he would need either at least one additional backing vote, or further absences and abstentions to lower the threshold. That is where the concessions come in: Plaid would need enough confidence from other parties, especially Labour, to avoid a defeat on the floor while still governing without a formal majority.

Ap Iorwerth said he hoped to hold the vote on Tuesday and told BBC Wales that “certainly Tuesday is what we would prefer” because Plaid wants to “hit the ground running”. The nomination can take place at the first Plenary meeting after an election, or later if the Senedd agrees. If any member objects, an electronic vote is called, and if more than two candidates are nominated, the lowest-placed contender is eliminated until one wins more than half the votes cast. The Presiding Officer then recommends the winner for appointment by the monarch.

The political significance reaches beyond Cardiff Bay. The 7 May vote was the first Senedd election under the expanded 96-member chamber, with six-member constituencies and a closed proportional list system, and it produced a historic break in Labour’s dominance. Welsh Labour, reduced to nine MSs after Eluned Morgan resigned, lost power in Cardiff Bay for the first time in devolution history. Interim leader Ken Skates said a final decision on Labour’s stance would come on Monday and called any deal with Reform to block ap Iorwerth “deeply unpleasant”.

If Labour does step aside, Plaid’s rise would mark more than a change of minister. It would put a nationalist party at the head of Wales’s government for the first time since devolution began in 1999, sharpening constitutional questions about the balance of power inside the United Kingdom and testing how far the devolved settlement can stretch before it is forced to change.