Safras projects Brazil soybean exports to slip about 3% in 2026

Safras & Mercado projected on Jan. 19, 2026 that Brazil’s soybean exports would decline roughly 3% in 2026 versus the prior year, attributing the slip to harvest timing, stronger domestic crushing and evolving global buying patterns, particularly in China.

The consultancy’s first supply-and-demand estimate for the 2025 business year (new crop 2024/25) set total demand at 166.0 million tonnes, up 8% year‑on‑year, and forecast soybean exports of 107.0 million tonnes for 2025 compared with 97.0 million tonnes in 2024. At the same time Safras projected domestic crushing at 55.5 million tonnes in 2025, up from 54.3 million tonnes in 2024, signaling a continued shift toward processing value domestically.

Supply-side calculations point to a larger available pool of soybeans. Safras estimated total supply for 2025 at 174.55 million tonnes, an 11% increase, and forecast a sharp rise in carryover stocks to 8.551 million tonnes from 2.859 million tonnes the year before, a near 199% increase. Analysts have flagged that such inventory accumulation places downward pressure on prices and can prompt producers to sell more aggressively. Datamarnews cited Safras analyst Rafael Silveira saying carryover stocks would remain “very large,” even with elevated exports.

The product balance showed modest growth in processed outputs. Soymeal production was projected at 42.7 million tonnes for 2025, a 2% rise, with exports of meal forecast to fall 2% to 22.0 million tonnes even as domestic meal consumption was expected to climb 9% to 20.3 million tonnes. Soymeal stocks were forecast to increase 19% to 2.52 million tonnes. Soyoil production was seen rising 2% to 11.13 million tonnes, but exports were forecast to tumble 20% to about 1.0 million tonnes as domestic consumption, including biodiesel use, rose; Safras projected domestic soyoil use at 10.3 million tonnes (up 7%) and biodiesel demand at 6.2 million tonnes (up 11%), leaving soyoil stocks down 27% to roughly 415,000 tonnes.

Global demand patterns underpinned much of Safras’ view. Data cited by Safras showed China had purchased 65.92 million tonnes of Brazilian soybeans that year, up 8% year‑on‑year, while U.S. shipments to China fell 7.8% to 22.4 million tonnes, evidence of an ongoing shift in Chinese sourcing toward South America. Forward-sales pacing also raised caution: Safras reported forward sales in September at 20.18% of expected production for the 2025/26 season, below the five‑year average of 28.12%, a slower pace analysts linked to the U.S.-China trade war and uncertainty over whether China will resume significant purchases of U.S. soybeans.

Market observers noted divergent production estimates across agencies, with USDA’s June WASDE at 153 million tonnes, Safras at 149 million tonnes, and Conab at 147.3 million tonnes for Brazil’s 2024/25 crop, underscoring forecasting uncertainty. Harvest reports showed national completion near 99%, with Rio Grande do Sul lagging at about 95% because of flooding and recent short-term rains in the south.

The combination of rising stocks, stronger domestic processing and shifting buyer behavior suggests Brazilian farmers and exporters face a period of volatile prices and logistics stress. If domestic crushing and biodiesel demand continue to rise, Brazil will capture more value at home but also reduce volumes available for global markets. As Safras weighed a modest export decline for 2026, the balance of trade flows will hinge on China’s buying decisions and whether policy changes on biodiesel blending or trade reopen corridors for U.S. soy, which could quickly reshape global soybean trade dynamics.