Saudi Arabia’s move strains Trump Iran strategy and Gulf ties

Saudi Arabia’s decision to suspend U.S. military use of its bases and airspace forced President Donald Trump to halt Project Freedom after only about 36 hours, turning a fast-moving maritime operation into a test of how far Washington can push traditional Gulf partners. The move centered on Prince Sultan Air Base, southeast of Riyadh, and came even after a call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman failed to resolve the dispute.

The setback matters because Project Freedom was meant to help guide commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most consequential energy arteries. The strait carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day in 2024 and 2025, roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, along with about 19% of global LNG trade. At its narrowest point, it is only 29 nautical miles wide, leaving tankers and naval traffic exposed to any escalation between the United States and Iran.

Trump said he paused the operation in part because of what he called “great progress” toward a final agreement with Iran. That message briefly lifted stock futures and fed hopes of a diplomatic opening, even as U.S. officials warned that nearly 23,000 sailors on vessels from 87 countries were stranded in the Persian Gulf because of Iran’s de facto closure of the waterway. Marco Rubio said at the White House that at least 10 sailors had already died.

The episode also underscored the limits of American leverage with Gulf partners that have long depended on U.S. security guarantees but still guard their own regional interests. NBC News reported that other Gulf allies were caught off guard, and that the United States did not coordinate with Oman until after the announcement. Saudi officials later said the kingdom supported diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan to broker a deal between the United States and Iran. A Saudi source also denied that the country had fully cut off U.S. access, saying regular access to Saudi bases and airspace remained in place.

The broader stakes reach far beyond one operation. Saudi Arabia has some alternative oil export capacity that can bypass the strait through pipeline routes to the Red Sea, but Qatar and the United Arab Emirates rely heavily on the passage, with about 93% of Qatar’s LNG exports and 96% of the UAE’s LNG exports transiting Hormuz. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Brent crude rose from $69 a barrel to $74 after regional tensions in June 2025 even without a full shutdown of the waterway. With U.S. Central Command already deploying guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft, unmanned platforms and 15,000 service members, the pause showed that access to Saudi airspace became the real-world stress test for Trump’s Iran strategy and the cohesion of his Gulf alliance.