Singapore raises export forecast as AI demand lifts shipments

Singapore’s export machine got a fresh boost from the global AI buildout, as surging shipments of chips, disk media products and PCs helped drive a 9.6% rise in non-oil domestic exports in the first quarter and prompted Enterprise Singapore to raise its 2026 forecast.

The agency now expects non-oil domestic exports, or NODX, to grow 3.0% to 5.0% this year, up from an earlier range of 2.0% to 4.0%. The revision pointed to resilient artificial-intelligence-related demand as the main force behind the stronger outlook, with electronics doing the heavy lifting while other export categories remained softer. Electronic exports jumped 57.8% from a year earlier in the first quarter, while non-electronic exports fell 3.5%.

April data showed the momentum was still running hot. Enterprise Singapore said NODX expanded 24.5% in April from a year earlier, after a 15.3% gain in March. Electronic NODX rose 66.7%, driven by integrated circuits, disk media products and PCs, all of them closely tied to the technology supply chain that has been feeding on AI investment. Non-oil re-exports rose 29.6% in April, and total merchandise trade climbed 33.1%, underscoring Singapore’s role as both a producer and a transshipment hub for Asia’s electronics flows.

That strength looks more structural than a one-off spike, but it is not immune to the cycle. The first-quarter numbers showed total merchandise trade up 25.6% and services trade up 4.4%, reinforcing the sense that the city-state is benefiting from a broader rebound in tech-linked commerce. Still, Enterprise Singapore said the revised forecast remained consistent with the International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization’s calls for softer global trade growth in 2026. The IMF’s April World Economic Outlook put global growth at 3.1% this year.

The agency also flagged the risks that could interrupt the run. It pointed to high base effects in the second half of 2026, plus the threat of a prolonged Middle East conflict and renewed trade tensions. That caution matters because the outlook has already shifted sharply: in November 2025, Enterprise Singapore had warned NODX growth could slow to 0% to 2% in 2026, before upgrading Singapore’s GDP growth forecast to 2.0% to 4.0% in February. For now, the AI spending cycle is giving Singapore’s exporters a stronger-than-expected year, but the durability of that lift will depend on whether chip demand can stay ahead of harder comparisons and geopolitical shocks.