South Korean exports seen jumping again on AI chip demand

South Korea’s export surge is now strong enough to read as an early warning for the global AI economy. A poll of nine economists projected shipments from Asia’s fourth-largest economy rose 48.4% in May from a year earlier, a 12th straight monthly increase driven by semiconductors and other high-value technology goods as AI investment keeps feeding demand through electronics supply chains.

The latest numbers suggest the rebound is still being powered by one dominant boom sector rather than a broad-based export recovery. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources said April exports jumped 48.0% to $85.9 billion, while imports rose 16.7% to $62.1 billion, leaving a $23.8 billion trade surplus. Average daily exports reached $3.9 billion, also up 48.0% from a year earlier, underscoring how rapidly the trade balance has swung back in favor of exporters.

Momentum accelerated further in early May. Shipments rose 43.7% in the first 10 days of the month to $18.4 billion, then climbed 64.8% in the first 20 days to a record $52.7 billion. Semiconductor exports exceeded $20 billion for the first time in that 20-day period and surged 202.1% from a year earlier, a sign that the chip cycle remains unusually powerful. South Korea’s exports had already risen for 11 straight months in April, and March deliveries increased at the fastest pace in nearly four decades on AI-driven chip demand.

The pattern matters well beyond Seoul. South Korea is one of the clearest barometers of global manufacturing because of its heavy exposure to semiconductors, autos and petrochemicals, so the size of the export rebound points to real demand rather than a statistical blip. Economists said the pace looked strong enough to carry into the second quarter, even with uncertainty in the wider global economy and high oil prices weighing on other industries.

The export boom is arriving alongside firmer domestic price pressure. Consumer inflation ran at 2.6% in April, and the poll pointed to a 3.0% reading in May, which would be the fastest annual pace since March 2024. That backdrop kept pressure on the Bank of Korea, which was expected to leave its base rate at 2.50% on May 28, even as some economists looked for at least one hike by end-September if inflation tied to energy prices continues to build. Official May trade figures were scheduled for release on Monday, June 1, and the market will be watching to see whether the AI chip boom is still carrying the whole export story.