Spain's conservatives win Andalusia, need Vox to govern

Spain’s conservatives won Andalusia, but the result left Juanma Moreno short of the seats he needs to govern alone and pushed Vox into the center of the coalition math. The People’s Party took 53 of 109 seats in the Andalusian Parliament, two short of the 55 needed for an absolute majority, while Vox won 15 seats and became the likely kingmaker.

That matters because Andalusia is Spain’s most populous autonomous community and one of its clearest political barometers. The vote was widely read as a test of strength ahead of a national election expected next year, and it showed a right-wing bloc that is competitive but not yet unified enough to rule without outside help. Moreno, the PP’s Andalusian leader and regional president, acknowledged the limits of the result, saying, “We didn’t graduate with first-class honours.”

The numbers also marked a clear step back from the PP’s surge in 2022, when Moreno won 58 seats and 43.11% of the vote, an outright majority that let him govern without bargaining with the far right. This time, the party still finished first, but it lost room to maneuver and will almost certainly have to negotiate with Vox if it wants to stay in office. The PSOE, by contrast, collapsed to 28 seats, a result described as its worst ever in Andalusia after decades in power before the PP breakthrough.

Campaign issues underscored how local frustrations can feed national politics. Voters were focused on public health shortcomings, drug trafficking and unemployment, all of which gave the contest a sharper edge than a routine regional ballot. Pedro Sanchez also campaigned in Andalusia in the final days, underlining how closely the race was tied to the next national contest and to the broader struggle over Spain’s direction.

Any deal with Vox would carry consequences beyond Seville and Ronda. Moreno has long been seen as the more moderate face of the PP, while Santiago Abascal’s party has pressed a harder line on immigration, identity and culture-war politics. If the PP depends on Vox in Andalusia, that balance could shape not only regional policy but also the tone of the national right as it tries to challenge Sanchez after nine years of left-leaning rule.