Spain's Socialists Gain in Polls as Sánchez Anti-War Stance Wins Support

Pedro Sánchez's decision to close Spanish airspace to U.S. military aircraft involved in strikes on Iran and bar their access to jointly operated bases in southern Spain proved to be more than a diplomatic gambit; it turned into a domestic political asset. Two polls published Monday show his ruling Socialist Party gaining voter support, while far-right Vox, which has backed the offensive and maintains close ties to President Donald Trump's MAGA movement, saw its numbers fall.

The Sigma Dos survey for El Mundo placed Vox at 17.1 percent, down from 18.3 percent, while the 40dB poll recorded a separate dip of 0.1 percentage point, putting the party at 18.7 percent. The center-right People's Party remained the leading force in both surveys at 32.5 percent and 31.1 percent respectively, but it was the directional movement of the Socialists and the compression of Vox's support that drew the sharpest analyst attention. An unnamed pollster told Reuters that Sánchez "has steered a course that many Spaniards see as sensible and protective of Spain's interests," while opposition figures warned the gains could erode if the government came to be seen as weak on security.

The broader public mood behind the numbers is not subtle. A survey by the state pollster CIS, published last month, found that 85 percent of respondents rejected the war entirely. That figure provides crucial context for understanding how PSOE's positioning translated into polling movement: Sánchez was not swimming against public sentiment but with a current that already ran strong. He has repeatedly described the conflict as "an illegal and reckless war," language that places him among the most outspoken Western heads of government in opposing the campaign.

Analysts warned, however, that foreign-policy rally moments in Spanish polling have historically been short-lived. The country's fragmented legislature, where PSOE governs through a coalition with Sumar and depends on shifting support from regional parties including Junts per Catalunya, means a few percentage points carry disproportionate consequences for coalition arithmetic. With regional and potentially national elections on the horizon before August 2027, the party will need sustained momentum rather than a single-issue bounce to translate the polling gain into durable parliamentary leverage.

For Vox, the results present a strategic problem rooted in its alignment with Trump at a moment when Spanish voters are broadly hostile to the policies the MAGA movement has championed. Recalibrating that message without alienating its core base will test party leadership heading into the next electoral cycle.

Spain's stance also carries weight beyond the Iberian Peninsula. As one of NATO's larger southern-flank members, Madrid's refusal to allow the use of jointly operated facilities for the Iran strikes represents a concrete, operational break with allied posture rather than mere rhetoric, a distinction other European governments will watch closely as they navigate their own domestic pressures over defense spending and the limits of solidarity.